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      "text": "In the context of the CDM—the world's largest carbon offset program—we estimate that at least 52% of approved carbon offsets were allocated to projects that would very likely have been built anyway.",
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      "text": "misallocation of carbon offsets: 52%",
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      "text": "Row (20) of Table 1 shows the results of this exercise. Since we have built in the assumption that every BLIMP is partly infra-marginal, the blatantly infra-marginal capacity is much lower—about half of the number in our main results. The number of carbon credits allocated to support this infra-marginal wind capacity is also lower, about a third of our main finding. This should be thought of as a conservative lower bound on infra-marginality. At this lower bound the CDM performs on par with the lottery allocation mechanism.",
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      "text": "Why is the CDM failing to screen out these projects? We cannot answer this question definitively, though we observe that the vast majority of Indian wind power projects whose applications made it to the UN Executive Board were approved. Of the 666 CDM applications submitted for Indian wind farms, including the nearly 200 that we could not link to any real projects, 98% were approved. Even though we have identified hundreds of CDM applications that perhaps should have been denied, final approval appears to be almost automatic.",
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      "text": "We also find that the allocation of offsets to Indian wind power projects compares unfavorably with a lottery, indicating that there is substantial room for improvement in the design and implementation of the project selection mechanism. Having a process that accurately screens out projects that do not require subsidies is essential to safeguarding the integrity of offset programs.",
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      "text": "When the CDM was created, India's wind power sector was identified as a context where there was huge potential for supporting marginal projects and increasing development beyond baseline projections. Yet, we estimate that the CDM has approved at least 28 million tonnes-worth of carbon offsets to infra-marginal projects. If we extrapolate this rate of infra-marginal support to the CDM as a whole, we calculate that the program may have increased global carbon dioxide emissions by 6.1 billion tonnes, equivalent to running 20 one-gigawatt coal power plants for their entire 50-year lifespan.",
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      "text": "The last decade has seen billions of carbon offsets issued to project developers around the world, providing opportunities for regulatory compliance at lower cost. However, when offset programs support projects that would have been developed anyway, they not only waste the limited resources available to mitigate climate change, but also contribute to climate change by increasing global emissions. In the context of the CDM—the world's largest carbon offset program—we estimate that at least 52% of approved carbon offsets were allocated to projects that would very likely have been built anyway. This is a substantial misallocation of resources.",
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      "text": "In practice, most of the screening is accomplished earlier in the process through some combination",
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      "text": "To operationalize this idea, we use the next biggest inferior non-CDM project to bound from below the counterfactual capacity of BLIMPs. The next biggest non-CDM project shows what capacity each BLIMP could have been built to, at least, without CDM support. This approach yields a lower bound on infra-marginal capacity, by imposing the assumption that every BLIMP is only partly infra-marginal.",
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      "text": "7 Conclusion",
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