{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-24eb70073ae3",
  "docSlug": "0ae7fc01f78df562",
  "documentTitle": "article thebeatmar2025",
  "authorId": "MorganStanley",
  "authorName": "Morgan Stanley",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "equity_research",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Equity research",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.333,
  "pageNumber": 16,
  "pageCount": 60,
  "prevPage": 15,
  "nextPage": 17,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 2,
  "notes": "The chart uses a 4Q lag for the mortgage demand data to align with residential spending trends.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "line_chart",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-24eb70073ae3/16",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-24eb70073ae3",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-24eb70073ae3.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-24eb70073ae3#slide-16",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Leading Indicators Point to a Recovery in Construction Activity in 2H25",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-2e3a-7040-97e1-407f71117fbf",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.535,
        "w": 0.928,
        "x": 0.036,
        "y": 0.305
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "ECB bank lending survey expected mortgage demand (4Q lag) (LH), EU residential spending (RH)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "75e78484-4a11-47eb-aece-349b7b0830f6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Mortgage demand",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-2e3a-7040-97e1-463d52680d4b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.075,
        "w": 0.928,
        "x": 0.036,
        "y": 0.195
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "After a challenging few years, the European Construction & Construction Materials sector looks poised for a rebound, as the tailwind from rate cuts works its way into construction activity. Additionally, news of a ceasefire in Ukraine and related reconstruction efforts could provide a further boost to EPS, providing positive optionality to the trade.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f1376c50-cd10-41ab-a9b2-e6a49ca227e0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.055,
        "w": 0.928,
        "x": 0.036,
        "y": 0.875
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: MSIM, Bloomberg. As of February 17, 2025. The views and opinions expressed are those of the Portfolio Solutions Group at the time of writing/of this presentation and are subject to change at any time due to market, economic, or other conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Forecasts/estimates are based on current market conditions, subject to change, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ff86e5ec-fef9-4444-a4f8-0dee3e29a611",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.035,
        "w": 0.468,
        "x": 0.036,
        "y": 0.145
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Overweight European Construction",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fcab489c-6536-465b-b51b-06f5f11d68ca",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 18,
      "from": 10,
      "beatId": "789c8a0e-afc2-4b46-ad06-fc102247e940",
      "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence",
      "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence",
      "beatName": "Satisfaction",
      "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-satisfaction",
      "evidence": "The document provides detailed analysis and recommendations, offering solutions to address the identified needs.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 18,
      "from": 10,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "c00d8fbe-f904-4a7d-825b-7a2d4648e40e",
      "evidence": "The document emphasizes the benefits of adapting portfolios to the evolving market landscape.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "Highlight the potential costs of not adjusting portfolios in response to market changes.",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}