{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-1e1c5686629b",
  "docSlug": "65ba79c0a1c3a0ab",
  "documentTitle": "ey energy and resources transition acceleration",
  "authorId": "MorganStanley",
  "authorName": "EY",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "equity_research",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Equity research",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 29,
  "pageCount": 48,
  "prevPage": 28,
  "nextPage": 30,
  "slideType": "diagnosis",
  "function": "diagnose",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 6,
  "notes": "The slide uses a causal chain logic (LOLE metrics -> grid challenges).",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "action_title",
    "paragraph",
    "bar_chart_horizontal",
    "big_number",
    "photo",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 0.95,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-1e1c5686629b/29",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-1e1c5686629b",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-1e1c5686629b.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd59-1e1c5686629b#slide-29",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "In Europe, flexibility requirements will increase 10 times by 2050, according to our forecasts.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-3409-704d-b4e2-dee3bcc0b55a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.4,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.32,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "System adequacy – loss of load expectations (LOLE) comparison",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-horizontal",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "bf805a77-2254-438e-8273-c491dff9686b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.75,
        "y": 0.35
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Falling reserve capacity; Loss of load more than reliability standard; Reduced plant availability; High incidents of forced outages",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1d22adb8-5e63-478d-8a19-dcfff0816a9f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.6
      },
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "10x",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "big-number",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0ede1fff-ae26-489d-9893-22899bd53e6f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Loss of load expectations (LOLE): 10x",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-3409-704d-b4e2-e109cb8e7715",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.3
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The rapid growth of renewables and DERs will drive high levels of network intermittency and bidirectional flow that the grid was not built to withstand. As dispatchable capacity gets replaced by intermittent renewables, system adequacy challenges are expected to impact major regions within the coming decade.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2096505c-f683-478f-8b3c-833657b9c97c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "In Europe, flexibility requirements will increase 10 times by 2050, according to our forecasts.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8d5a21b3-1401-4839-be07-53276b370537",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.32,
        "y": 0.8
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: EY analysis of ENTSO-E reports, EIA. LOLE: the number of hours in a period (typically a year) during which the available generation plant will be inadequate to meet the instantaneous demand.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ead2519b-8eee-4a08-a507-3d59d23ef83a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.1
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Implication 5: The urgent quest to build a hyper-intelligent, flexible grid",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "990bde02-64ef-4ce6-9e40-d720567ee083",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Problem Statement Canvas",
      "slug": "problem-statement-canvas",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "ca4fe181-c6dc-48d7-9b28-93e27a6f3397",
      "evidence": "paragraph/paragraph: The rapid growth of renewables and DERs will drive high levels of network intermittency and bidirectional flow that the grid was not built to withstand.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "causal-chain",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "7b680ce6-1671-4de3-ab86-ed5765c0309c",
      "evidence": "The slide links renewable growth to LOLE metrics and then to specific grid failure modes.",
      "confidence": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 30,
      "from": 29,
      "beatId": "b5b337ac-b41c-46cb-a050-027491fe8c3b",
      "arcName": "The Sparkline",
      "arcSlug": "sparkline",
      "beatName": "Diagnosis",
      "beatSlug": null,
      "evidence": "The deck presents a diagnosis of supply adequacy challenges hitting within a decade.",
      "position": 5,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": null,
      "parentBeatSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}