{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b",
  "docSlug": "d17594068844446e",
  "documentTitle": "ey global economic outlook july 2023",
  "authorId": "MorganStanley",
  "authorName": "EY Parthenon",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "equity_research",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Equity research",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 3,
  "pageCount": 33,
  "prevPage": 2,
  "nextPage": 4,
  "slideType": "situation_overview",
  "function": "establish_context",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 2,
  "notes": "The slide uses a 'Global snapshot' header and provides a narrative summary of macroeconomic conditions.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bullet_list"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b/3",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b#slide-3",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We anticipate global GDP growth will slow to 2.6% in 2023 - the slowest pace since 2001 outside of the global financial crisis and pandemic - and only accelerate modestly to 2.8% in 2024.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-340c-7065-8a6c-197111ca899a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.64
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Combined, this will undoubtedly put upward pressure on interest rates in the coming months and could exacerbate strains on the private sector with rising risks from \"known unknowns\" and \"unknown unknowns.\"",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "27eba439-c5db-4b99-9450-5416e029e91b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.8
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "In the context of renewed global economic optimism, an upside risk to the outlook stems from a faster disinflationary cycle and a more rapid supply and productivity rebound supported by a faster labor market rebalancing.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "996eabe3-cfec-46d6-8379-d17302cbfa89",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.21
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Global economic activity is slowing, but the nature of the slowdown across major economies is far from homogenous. We anticipate global GDP growth will slow to 2.6% in 2023... and only accelerate modestly to 2.8% in 2024.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a2b049ec-b13b-43a5-917c-018c4e5c7175",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.42
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "While global inflation is on a downward trajectory thanks to falling commodities prices, rebounding supply and easing final demand growth, core inflation (excluding food and energy) remains excessively elevated across most regions.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b5fef376-3fd2-4e27-9654-2c80a6968f27",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.51
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "In this context, the vibe from most advanced economies' central banks is \"higher for longer.\" With central bankers viewing inflation risks as being tilted to the upside, they will generally favor overtightening to avoid additional inflation persistence.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e7672a2e-2898-4819-ba39-cc249928bfe4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Labor markets around the world remain generally resilient, and while labor demand and supply are gradually coming into balance, labor market tightness is a common feature.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e855b035-7f53-49f4-a91b-51aaab7f1fc9",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Global GDP growth: 2.6%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-340c-7065-8a6c-1ee73e4a42ce",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: EY analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e157c4c1-7146-4cb4-bfbf-50b7267b56c1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.09
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "The global economy is still in a rebalancing cycle post-pandemic, featuring slowing demand, supply-side deficiencies, persistent core inflation and rising interest rates",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "356460b5-63a2-4763-adee-0a1332b20592",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Global snapshot",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b05b42b4-d6a7-4d5d-9a5f-f6afe6b72fac",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Audience Definition",
      "slug": "audience-definition",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "8f07ed12-ac73-4c45-8371-bea74869a6a6",
      "evidence": "The slide provides an overview of the global economy, indicating that the content is tailored to a general audience interested in economic trends.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 4,
      "from": 3,
      "beatId": "92cb57d8-ac67-4878-a6fa-adcf69149198",
      "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence",
      "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence",
      "beatName": "Attention",
      "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-attention",
      "evidence": "The global economy is still in a rebalancing cycle post-pandemic...",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Hook",
      "parentBeatSlug": "hook"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 10,
      "from": 3,
      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
      "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction",
      "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation",
      "matchId": "4f1f6cf4-986a-4487-84d8-7f0043cfb34b",
      "evidence": "Persistent core inflation pressures are keeping central bankers on high alert.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Highlight the risks of not addressing the economic slowdown",
      "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}