{ "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b", "docSlug": "d17594068844446e", "documentTitle": "ey global economic outlook july 2023", "authorId": "MorganStanley", "authorName": "EY Parthenon", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "equity_research", "sourceTypeLabel": "Equity research", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.778, "pageNumber": 20, "pageCount": 33, "prevPage": 19, "nextPage": 21, "slideType": "industry_trends", "function": "analyze_data", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 44, "notes": "The chart uses a grouped bar format to compare two years of GDP growth projections.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "action_title", "bar_chart_grouped", "bullet_list", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b/20", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-da989efca95b#slide-20", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Euro area real GDP y/y growth 2023-24F", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bar-grouped", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "26b76bf8-083a-4c3f-848a-919ddea4f996", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "list", "text": "European economies will slow down in 2023, but most EU countries will avoid full-year GDP contraction. The cross-country variation largely stems from differences in the economic structure. South European countries (Spain, Portugal, Croatia, and, to a lesser degree, Greece and Italy) will be among the best performing economies, as the tourism industry is returning to pre-pandemic levels. Their activity will also be supported by increasing government investment financed from the EU recovery fund.\nOn the other side of the spectrum, countries most reliant on the manufacturing sector (Germany, Czechia, Hungary) will see a full-year decline in GDP, as global headwinds, destocking and the pass-through from earlier increases in energy prices weigh on activity. These countries are also less likely to benefit from China's post-COVID-19 recovery, as the rebound has mostly been driven by domestic consumption and services sector activity, which led to less global spillover.\nIn 2024, GDP growth in Europe will accelerate on average as lower inflation supports real income growth though high interest rates and a gradual withdrawal of the discretionary stimulus provided in response to the pandemic and the energy shock will continue to weigh on activity. The manufacturing sector should rebound, as external demand gradually recovers and real income growth supports domestic demand. As a result, we anticipate that growth in Germany will reach 1.4% in 2024. At the same time, the momentum in tourism and government investment will fade, with Spain seeing GDP growth slow down to 1.4%. CEE countries will stand out as they return to their (much higher) potential growth, supported by quick disinflation.\nWhile historically high post-winter gas storage levels in Europe have significantly reduced the short-term energy security risk, the balance of risks to economic growth remains tilted to the downside.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "95a07b82-0f5a-4937-a3f2-c5b0e931f33d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Real GDP growth", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-340d-7338-acbc-d38427cf2826", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1. CEE includes Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Nordics includes Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway. South Europe includes Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Source: EY analysis", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "65211b3b-3aad-4a56-a291-6e0502433145", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Most EU countries will avoid recession in 2023 and grow at a modest pace with a notable exception of Germany; in 2024, economic growth will only slightly accelerate", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b2a0ff72-0e06-45e5-a2e2-e53811a21477", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "EU outlook", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "38987088-a9fb-4cb2-b885-d08151aff073", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "from": 15, "beatId": "3b5ba3c5-a5fc-4ec5-8fd1-0246f9b25fe9", "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence", "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence", "beatName": "Satisfaction", "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-satisfaction", "evidence": "We anticipate an ongoing slowdown, but no retrenchment in economic activity...", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Turn", "parentBeatSlug": "turn" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 15, "name": "Why Now", "slug": "15-why-now", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, fundraising, requesting immediate budget approval", "matchId": "440e9e6d-d6fe-4f91-b2e4-a882420d75cf", "evidence": "Geopolitical fragmentation and 'slowbalization' could have short-term consequences in growth...", "position": 1, "objective": "Explain why the economic outlook is changing now", "structure": "The Context (Trends) -> The Trigger Event -> The Window of Opportunity", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Create temporal urgency by proving that the window of opportunity is opening or closing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }