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  "documentTitle": "ey global economic outlook july 2023",
  "authorId": "MorganStanley",
  "authorName": "EY Parthenon",
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  "notes": "Includes historical data from 2005 and forecasts (H|F) for 2023-2025.",
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      "text": "Canada y/y real GDP 2005-25F",
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      "text": "Canada y/y percentage change in CPI 2005-25F",
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      "text": "We anticipate that after a 3.4% advance in 2022, real GDP growth will average 0.9% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024.",
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      "text": "The Canadian economy started the year strong, but forward-looking indicators continue to point toward a looming recession before year-end. Persistently elevated inflation continues to erode private sector purchasing power, while rising interest rates weigh on consumer spending, real estate sector activity and business investment. In addition, the external backdrop is likely to be less supportive of Canadian exports, with the US economy also cooling.",
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      "text": "Core inflation remains stubbornly high, around 4%. We continue to anticipate moderating inflation toward 2% in 2024 but foresee the Bank of Canada maintaining a hawkish tilt through year-end given the disappointingly slow progress toward the inflation target. Given the resumption of the rate hikes in June, with the policy rate now at 5.0%, and the hawkish forward guidance, we don't discount the possibility of further monetary policy tightening in 2023. What is more, any easing of interest rates is expected to be limited and very gradual in 2024.",
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      "text": "Notwithstanding positive immigration contributions, a softening labor market, with unemployment creeping up and job losses being more diffuse, is likely to further strain households' incomes. The impact of the Bank of Canada's aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle has yet to fully filter through to the economy, and with financial and credit conditions expected to tighten further, the drag on economic activity will grow.",
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      "text": "Real GDP growth: 0.5%",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: EY analysis",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Canada is likely to enter a recession before year-end, with persistent inflation forcing tighter monetary policy and weighing on a fragile real estate sector",
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