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  "documentTitle": "us executive macroeconomic briefing february 20240223",
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  "notes": "The chart shows a dual-axis line graph comparing small business credit difficulty and bank lending standards.",
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      "text": "Assuming the stress remains contained, we estimate that tighter credit and financial conditions will represent a drag on the US economy worth around 0.5% of GDP over the next 18 months.",
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      "text": "Credit conditions for small businesses Q3 2006 - Q4 2022",
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      "text": "Even if the current episode of banking sector distress is rapidly resolved, the economy won't escape unscathed and smaller businesses may suffer the brunt of the impact via tighter credit conditions. While labor market strength and consumer spending resilience through February indicate the absence of any significant retrenchment in private sector activity, the current developments will make banks even more wary of lending and weigh on businesses' decisions to hire and invest. Lending standards had already tightened markedly before the current banking sector stress episode. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) from the Fed revealed that nearly half of banks had tightened standards on C&I loans to firms of all sizes at the end of 2022. Assuming the stress remains contained, we estimate that tighter credit and financial conditions will represent a drag on the US economy worth around 0.5% of GDP over the next 18 months. Moreover, the this will increase the odds of a US recession. While economic conditions still looks relatively resilient, tighter credit growth along with financial market strains could push the economy into a recession.",
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      "text": "Source: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS); NFIB Small Business Survey; EY-Parthenon",
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