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  "documentTitle": "us executive macroeconomic briefing february 20240223",
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      "text": "In our view, the optimal approach would be to pause the tightening cycle in order to assess economic and financial conditions over the next couple of months.",
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      "text": "US interest rate forecasts, federal funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield 2010-26F",
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      "text": "The Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25bps to 4.50%-4.75% at the January 31-February 1 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Recent banking stress has put the Fed in a very uncomfortable position. The major question for the Fed isn't whether it should pause its tightening cycle. As such, we believe the Fed may consider adopting a dual track policy approach. In our view, the optimal approach would be to pause the tightening cycle in order to assess economic and financial conditions over the next couple of months.",
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      "text": "Federal funds rate: 5%",
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      "text": "1. \"Dot plot\" charts the median interest rate projection from the FOMC. The projections for the federal funds rate are the values at the end of the specified calendar year. Source: Federal Reserve Board; EY-Parthenon",
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      "text": "The Fed is on track to lift the policy rate above 5%, but recent financial market turbulence highlight the risk of overtightening and the lack of policy anchor",
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