{
  "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-a50ebad2bb6d",
  "docSlug": "8c66f187ccbbf6d3",
  "documentTitle": "us executive macroeconomic briefing february 20240223",
  "authorId": "MorganStanley",
  "authorName": "EY-Parthenon",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "equity_research",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Equity research",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 17,
  "pageCount": 26,
  "prevPage": 16,
  "nextPage": 18,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 12,
  "notes": "The slide uses a combination of a stacked bar chart for historical category contributions and a line chart for historical and forecasted headline/core inflation.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bar_chart_stacked",
    "line_chart",
    "bullet_list"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-a50ebad2bb6d/17",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-a50ebad2bb6d",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-a50ebad2bb6d.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd58-a50ebad2bb6d#slide-17",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Overall, inflation is clearly on a decelerating path with gradual consumer price disinflation, accelerating wholesale price disinflation, import price deflation and a notable pullback in consumers' inflation expectations.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-340b-7192-a37c-9df7792e63d4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "US y/y percent change in CPI, contribution by category January 2019-February 2023",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-stacked",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2cc7cb4b-2cfb-45e6-87a3-6020a2f68788",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "US y/y percent change in CPI 2019-26F",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f310c10e-8c84-413e-b7ab-0bea665a4440",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.6
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Despite recent bumps in the road, the disinflationary process is still underway as monthly price gains are much smaller than last year. Headline CPI inflation cooled 0.4ppts to 6.0% y/y in February. Overall, inflation is clearly on a decelerating path.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1055985b-7d6b-498b-af5b-6eda06e202f7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.6
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month over month (m/m) in February following a 0.5% gain in January. The 0.5% advance in core prices - driven by shelter inflation - points to a noteworthy mild re-acceleration in prices. Core goods prices were flat while services prices excluding energy and shelter increased a mild 0.3%.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3e09aa48-0988-469b-9a7a-d40828c1fa73",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "CPI: 6.0%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd952-340b-7192-a37c-a1cba4952cee",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: BLS; EY-Parthenon",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da4135cc-c583-4098-b61d-b137d1083542",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Despite recent bumps on the road, we expect inflation will fall with accelerating momentum this year as disinflationary forces intensify",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0794d441-bd1f-4237-a8d6-6f86bfc518bc",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "AIDA Model",
      "slug": "aida-model",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "adf16fcc-8561-40a7-8926-b662f3400e5e",
      "evidence": "The slide presents a problem (inflation bumps), an explanation (disinflationary forces), and a conclusion (inflation will fall).",
      "confidence": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}