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  "notes": "Includes regional outlook for ASEAN-6 countries.",
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      "text": "With inflation remaining under control and growth still below trend, we expect central banks in the region to gradually ease policy.",
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      "text": "ASEAN total trade (goods and services) 2015-25F",
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      "text": "Headline inflation has been easing across the region. Improved supply-side conditions, especially in the Philippines and Thailand, along with lower food and energy prices have been keen disinflationary factors. Core inflation has also been declining, albeit at varying rates across the region.\nDisinflationary forces are expected to remain in place through 2024, but there are upside risks from El Niño and potential geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains or energy prices.\nWith inflation remaining under control and growth still below trend, we expect central banks in the region to gradually ease policy. Once the risks from El Niño subside, the Bank of Thailand will likely start cutting rates in Q2 2024, and Malaysia will possibly ease in H2 2024 to support growth. Should core inflation move closer to 2.0% in Singapore, the central bank (Monetary Authority of Singapore) could ease policy in H2 2024.\nIn view of the upside risks to inflation and improving activity in the Philippines, we do not see a case for rate cuts, while Bank Indonesia is also likely to stay on hold to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah and pre-empt potential imported inflation.",
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      "text": "Source: IMF; Oxford Economics; ASEANstats; EY analysis",
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      "text": "Disinflationary forces are likely to remain in place through 2024, notwithstanding El Niño and geopolitical risks, allowing central banks to gradually ease policy",
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