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  "documentTitle": "eyp global economic outlook jan 2024",
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      "text": "The labor market capped 2023 on a solid note with nonfarm payrolls rising a strong 216k in December.",
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      "text": "US month over month (m/m) change in total nonfarm employment January 2021-December 2023",
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      "text": "The labor market capped 2023 on a solid note with nonfarm payrolls rising a strong 216k in December. The economy added 2.7m jobs in 2023, or the equivalent of 225k jobs per month, which represents the strongest annual job gain since 2015, outside of the pandemic disruption from 2020-22. This also represents nearly 40% stronger job growth than in 2019.",
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      "text": "With the labor market rebalancing now well underway, recent data points to a gentle moderation in hourly wage growth, which reached 4.1% y/y in December. While this remains above the Fed's comfort zone of around 3.5%, we anticipate that wage pressures will cool further as labor demand comes into better balance with a growing pool of available workers.",
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      "text": "We anticipate real disposable income growth around 2% in 2024, supporting a 1.7% advance in consumer spending.",
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      "text": "Moderate wage growth and receding inflation are helping support growth in real disposable income, a key support to consumer spending. Real disposable income rose 3.9% y/y in December, supporting consumers' purchasing power.",
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      "text": "Looking ahead, with business leaders confronted by cost fatigue and prospects of slower domestic and international demand growth, we anticipate reduced hirings, strategic resizing decisions, and wage growth compression and efforts to drive stronger productivity growth, but we don't anticipate a severe employment pullback. We foresee the unemployment rate rising towards 4.3% by mid-2024.",
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      "text": "Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; EY analysis",
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