{ "docId": "019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd57-fcc3cf532e42", "docSlug": "72c67d77b7b29fa0", "documentTitle": "ubs best of switzerland conference presentation", "authorId": "UBS", "authorName": "UBS", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "equity_research", "sourceTypeLabel": "Equity research", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.707, "pageNumber": 39, "pageCount": 446, "prevPage": 38, "nextPage": 40, "slideType": "industry_trends", "function": "establish_context", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 22, "notes": "The slide provides a narrative overview of the 2021 macroeconomic landscape, including specific GDP growth figures for various countries and market performance metrics.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd57-fcc3cf532e42/39", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd57-fcc3cf532e42", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd57-fcc3cf532e42.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5e88-73ef-bd57-fcc3cf532e42#slide-39", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Global economic developments in 2021", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "08138e01-90dc-4e0a-9d66-86874021dcfe", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "2021 was a positive year for the global economy and most markets. Growth rebounded, with the global economy expanding 6.1%, after contracting 3.0% in 2020. The recovery was also broad based, with all major nations experiencing a revival in demand as pandemic restrictions were gradually relaxed and the policies of major central banks remained supportive. Swiss GDP increased 3.5% in 2021, after decreasing 2.5% in 2020. US GDP grew 5.7%, after decreasing 3.4%. The Eurozone economy expanded 5.2%, after contracting 6.5% in the prior year. UK GDP increased 7.2% in 2021, after a decrease of 9.4% in 2020. China's economy grew 8.1%, up from 2.2% in 2020, although momentum slowed toward the end of 2021 and into 2022. Other leading Asian economies recovered strongly in 2021, with India's GDP growing 8.7%, Singapore's GDP increasing 7.6% and South Korea's GDP expanding 3.9%. Japan experienced less growth, with GDP increasing 1.7% after a 4.5% contraction in 2020. Growth in the top emerging markets was mixed, with a moderate 1.7% growth rate in Thailand and 3.7% in Indonesia, compared with a more robust 5.3% in Mexico and 4.5% in Brazil. Elevated inflation emerged as a concern through 2021 in much of the world, as the pandemic continued to disrupt supply chains and shift patterns of demand. By the end of the year, US inflation was running at the fastest pace since 1982 on a year-on-year basis. This caused the US Federal Reserve to move toward monetary tightening, announcing a scaling back of asset purchases and pointing toward rate rises. Inflation was contained in Switzerland, at 0.6% for the year, but climbed swiftly in the Eurozone, from 0.3% in 2020 to 2.6% in 2021. Meanwhile, prices in Japan declined 0.2% in 2021, having been flat in 2020. Financial markets, both equities and fixed income, were resilient in the face of continuing waves of COVID-19 infections. Global equities delivered total returns of 18.5% in 2021. The US outperformed: MSCI USA delivered total returns of 27%, outperforming the MSCI All Country World index by 8 percentage points and taking its share of the global index's market capitalization to a record level of 48%. The Eurozone, Japanese, Swiss and UK equity markets all gained ground. China, however, was an underperformer: after reaching a record high in February 2021, MSCI China declined over the rest of the year, driven by increased regulation on the technology and property sectors, energy shortages, and a slowing economy. The index delivered negative returns of 22.4% in 2021, negatively impacting the performance of the MSCI Emerging Markets index overall, which decreased 2.5% in 2021. Government bond markets were also resilient, especially against a backdrop of historically high inflation. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries ended the year at 1.5%, only a modest increase from 0.9% at the start of the year. With inflation rising, but nominal yields staying low, US real yields traded as low as minus 1.2%, the lowest level since the inception of the Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) market in 1997. The yield on 10-year German Bunds remained negative through 2021, ending the year at minus 0.18%.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d54be032-e6b6-4955-b61c-57af3c1025a3", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Our environment", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "09d8e7f3-5506-44b3-a4ac-63c95c86fe83", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.14 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Market climate", "attrs": null, "subkind": "subtitle", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c7c94f83-d3d9-498e-8c8c-83d1fb67b481", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 40, "from": 21, "beatId": "2f014d60-0c07-4fe5-a63e-664cff098e90", "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence", "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence", "beatName": "Satisfaction", "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-satisfaction", "evidence": "The document provides an overview of UBS's businesses and how they create value for stakeholders.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Turn", "parentBeatSlug": "turn" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 40, "from": 21, "name": "Logic Chain", "slug": "01-logic-chain", "bestFor": "Skeptical audiences, controversial recommendations, rigorous analysis", "matchId": "906416cc-30c2-46ef-a3db-d8f024a9b751", "evidence": "The document outlines UBS's strategy and business model to create value for stakeholders.", "position": 0, "objective": "How UBS creates value for its stakeholders", "structure": "Premise 1 (Accepted truth) -> Premise 2 (Observed fact) -> Therefore... (Inevitable conclusion)", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Build an airtight chain of logic where each premise leads inevitably to the conclusion" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }