{ "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a16a-dcad36b43923", "docSlug": "1232830157e98f8d", "documentTitle": "2022 Japan Consumer Survey on Next-Generation Automobiles", "authorId": "Deloitte", "authorName": "Climate Group", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.707, "pageNumber": 14, "pageCount": 21, "prevPage": 13, "nextPage": 15, "slideType": "section_divider", "function": "transition", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "The slide uses a historical analogy (semiconductor industry) to frame a current business risk (automotive industry).", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "photo" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a16a-dcad36b43923/14", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a16a-dcad36b43923", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a16a-dcad36b43923.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a16a-dcad36b43923#slide-14", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.319, "x": 0.134, "y": 0.385 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Risk of replicating decline of Japanese semiconductor industry", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e7e2ac19-478f-4f41-8eec-f93c75aa1828", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Inoue's report warns the Japanese automotive industry may be headed down a similar path, if it does not rapidly respond to wider global trends.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-0491-71ac-9db9-98cff4d50f70", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 1, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.54, "y": 0 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "subkind": "photo", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7a1f21ec-0505-4210-a9c1-74f974e14f69", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.319, "x": 0.134, "y": 0.445 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Inoue offers a comparison between what happened to the Japanese semiconductor industry and what is at risk of happening to the Japanese automotive sector. In the 1980s, Japanese semiconductor manufacturers were clear leaders who controlled 50% of the global market. Under the Japanese model, each semiconductor company would handle all aspects of manufacturing – from production to sales of the final product. However, Japanese manufacturers were overconfident in the superiority of their products and failed to notice important changes in global business models for computers. A significant change occurred when Dell introduced its “Build to Order” approach which was more cost-effective than the Japanese production model. In this, a range of specialised manufacturers could focus on improving performance and price, and the Japanese semiconductor industry lost its foothold in the global market. In particular, Intel semiconductors came to dominate the global computer market due to the company’s ability to respond flexibly and deliver exactly on schedule. Japan’s current share of the global semiconductor market is now only 10%, due to the industry’s inability to adapt quickly and their apparent overconfidence. Inoue’s report warns the Japanese automotive industry may be headed down a similar path, if it does not rapidly respond to wider global trends. He sees Japanese automotive manufacturers as overconfident in the superiority of their technology and out of step with wider international trends – just as they were previously in the semiconductor industry. He also warns of the risk of continuing to depend on battery manufacturers in foreign countries, particularly those in China. He makes the point that computers shifted to having Intel inside across the board and there is a risk that BEVs will become dominated by CATL inside if Japan, and others, do not proactively invest now to counteract China’s growing dominance. As noted above, both Wada and Inoue emphasise the importance of further government support and investment to address this. For example, Wada argues that Japan should accelerate its efforts to transition from liquid-state batteries to solid-state batteries (Toyota holds more than 1,000 patents in this technology34).", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7f929cb8-fd02-475c-9162-dec091ea3ed2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.405, "x": 0.048, "y": 0.135 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Understanding the economic impact", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "115dcad6-bdef-4d35-ae2b-59540473367d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.06, "x": 0.048, "y": 0.058 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Part 3:", "attrs": null, "subkind": "subtitle", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4461b628-ac2f-4034-9f8f-403e70faaf37", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Section divider", "slug": "section-divider", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "2a454fc9-7e3d-4d32-84ea-28dbdf79c940", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'Understanding the economic impact' and contains a clear section divider with a subtitle 'Part 3:'.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [ { "name": "argument-from-analogy", "slug": null, "matchId": "b303acf9-cd4c-41a7-9433-3b1f2a44ecae", "evidence": "Compares the historical decline of the Japanese semiconductor industry to the current risks facing the Japanese automotive industry.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 17, "from": 14, "beatId": "9037fd78-e2ae-45dd-93c0-df34250f04ad", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "evidence": "The document highlights the potential loss of employment and GDP from not moving faster to ZEVs.", "position": 4, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Development", "parentBeatSlug": "development" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 17, "from": 14, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "26c65f73-7636-4cd3-af99-695746f71734", "evidence": "The document presents data on potential job losses and GDP impacts.", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the economic implications of delayed ZEV adoption?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }