{
  "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a169-83187257f35b",
  "docSlug": "5d146414b5cc38c9",
  "documentTitle": "Vaccines & Therapeutics Outlook Part I: Timelines and Success Factors",
  "authorId": "BCG",
  "authorName": "BCG",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 22,
  "pageCount": 34,
  "prevPage": 21,
  "nextPage": 23,
  "slideType": "data_table",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 35,
  "notes": "The chart uses a range-based visualization to show forecast uncertainty for 2020 and 2021.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "other",
    "data_table"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a169-83187257f35b/22",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a169-83187257f35b",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a169-83187257f35b.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a169-83187257f35b#slide-22",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.6,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value (Base: 100)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "47dad001-d449-4163-a848-6b7ba1990364",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.92
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "Note: As of reports dated 31 March 2020 to 21 August 2020, YoY forecasts; 1. For India, forecast is for financial year; for other countries, the forecast is for calendar year; 2. Range from forecasts (where available) of JPMorgan Chase; Morgan Stanley; Bank of America; Fitch Solutions; Credit Suisse; Danske Bank; ING Group; HSBC; Source: Bloomberg; World Bank; IMF; BCG",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2c185877-4946-493f-9375-eda2cca1c4d7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.85
      },
      "kind": "legend",
      "text": "2019 GDP levels (Index) | Forecast IMF (Jun 24, 2020) | Forecast World Bank (Jun 8, 2020) | Forecast range from leading banks",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e29bb90b-6266-40ef-88d7-0bc11c0bbb6e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "GDP index (2019=100): 100",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-fefb-728e-ad97-24d5c4315cae",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Economic forecasts point toward a severe downturn in 2020; most countries expected to rebound to 2019 GDP only by end of 2021",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "9f6b1843-300d-4001-a6b4-481cfcd19123",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a09-7a78382dea46",
      "evidence": "Title delivers forecast: rebound to 2019 GDP only by end of 2021.",
      "confidence": 80
    },
    {
      "name": "Chart Selection Guide",
      "slug": "chart-selection-guide",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "6c2f1f9f-0ca2-40a2-87ff-18f435e95b6d",
      "evidence": "The slide uses a bar chart to display GDP forecast levels indexed to 2019 value, which is a common chart type for comparing categorical data.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    },
    {
      "name": "Small Multiples",
      "slug": "small-multiples",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a09-7d3ac5955aeb",
      "evidence": "Country GDP forecasts in repeated bar format.",
      "confidence": 60
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 30,
      "from": 18,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0702-74a3-87e3-b0151d6fa4d2",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Evidence & Proof",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof",
      "evidence": "Therapeutics, scenario fork, de-averaged econ indicators by country/sector",
      "position": 4,
      "confidence": 78,
      "parentBeatName": "Evidence",
      "parentBeatSlug": "evidence"
    },
    {
      "to": 30,
      "from": 21,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0702-74a3-87e3-c0089e981d55",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Action (Now What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-action-now-what",
      "evidence": "De-averaged econ implications by sector/country to inform agenda",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 65,
      "parentBeatName": "Resolution",
      "parentBeatSlug": "resolution"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 30,
      "from": 21,
      "name": "Segmentation Split",
      "slug": "34-segmentation-split",
      "bestFor": "Customer analysis, market research, resource allocation",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-088c-724c-b30f-cbc5b2acf370",
      "evidence": "Slides anchored on de-averaged; sector/country splits across mobility, retail, PMI, TSR.",
      "position": 6,
      "objective": "De-averaged view: how recovery splits by country, sector, and category",
      "structure": "The Aggregate View -> Segment A Behavior -> Segment B Behavior -> The Insight in the Difference",
      "confidence": 82,
      "description": "Divide a whole into meaningful segments to reveal hidden patterns"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}