{ "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a168-c6556b394828", "docSlug": "7af5a6a7138e3970", "documentTitle": "Assessment of the expected economic impact of the Tempest Programme (2021-2050)", "authorId": "PwC", "authorName": "RUSI", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.707, "pageNumber": 25, "pageCount": 44, "prevPage": 24, "nextPage": 26, "slideType": "appendix", "function": "establish_context", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Page 18 of a report, containing text and footnotes.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a168-c6556b394828/25", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a168-c6556b394828", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a168-c6556b394828.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a168-c6556b394828#slide-25", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A significant notable development after 2018 in the wider international environment was the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. This event greatly increased the perceived threat to NATO territory and raised many questions about the definition of a revised NATO approach to deterrence. It also increased Western awareness of the possibility of a sustained conventional war in Europe, with all that would imply for stockpiles of munitions and parts, the size of fleets given likely wartime losses, and the potential for surged production of systems and subsystems. The inspector general of the Bundeswehr, General Eberhard Zorn, said in September that German forces now need a 'cold start capability': 'a cold start capability means fully trained and ready personnel, including strong reserves, fully equipped with plenty of ammunition, spare parts and supplies'.43", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "770f493a-dfe2-4d5e-b664-64b9c4b8a72b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This reasoning could have significant implications for future combat aircraft, including FCAS. Will it create a demand for less complex aircraft than first envisaged, which can be bought in larger numbers? Will more funding have to be allocated to stocks of parts and munitions so that UK forces will be able to fight for months rather than days? In the event of growing hostility from Russia and China, will pressures grow for almost all training to be conducted on simulators so as to minimise an adversary's chances of learning about the system? These are all questions for consideration in the rethink of the 2021 Integrated Review, should the government of Rishi Sunak choose to proceed with the update commissioned by Liz Truss. In answering these questions, close consultation with industrial partners will continue to be needed for informed and prudent choices.44", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d2510d20-e199-4be4-b3f4-22077e3ad0ff", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The inspector general of the Bundeswehr, General Eberhard Zorn, said in September that German forces now need a 'cold start capability': 'a cold start capability means fully trained and ready personnel, including strong reserves, fully equipped with plenty of ammunition, spare parts and supplies.'", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd952-3be7-728b-abfa-c8100456859d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "43. Nicholas Fiorenza, ‘Bundeswehr Must Acquire Cold Start Capability, Urges Defence Chief’, Janes Defence Weekly, 15 September 2022.\n44. On the Integrated Review, see George Parker, ‘Liz Truss to Launch UK Defence Review as She Calls for Russian Reparations’, Financial Times, 20 September 2022. See also Paul O’Neill, ‘The UK’s Integrated Review at One Year – Fit for Purpose?’, RUSI Commentary, 31 March 2022.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "dc046085-1998-4822-aa6c-7db4474290cf", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.7, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "The Tempest Programme", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "fd6b3001-b4c4-42f6-88b2-6b9350054b7c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 37, "from": 11, "beatId": "791e393f-43d5-4395-b949-6ed3f2d8a690", "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit", "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit", "beatName": "Evidence & Proof", "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof", "evidence": "Various data and figures supporting the assessment", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Evidence", "parentBeatSlug": "evidence" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 37, "from": 11, "name": "Logic Chain", "slug": "01-logic-chain", "bestFor": "Skeptical audiences, controversial recommendations, rigorous analysis", "matchId": "7bd37f4f-bc99-487d-a86a-0e76466d3320", "evidence": "The document presents a series of logical steps and data to support its assessment", "position": 0, "objective": "Understand the economic impact of the Tempest Programme", "structure": "Premise 1 (Accepted truth) -> Premise 2 (Observed fact) -> Therefore... (Inevitable conclusion)", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Build an airtight chain of logic where each premise leads inevitably to the conclusion" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }