{
  "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-cc27462f852b",
  "docSlug": "8f864c9245c9736f",
  "documentTitle": "January Macro Brief",
  "authorId": "Accenture",
  "authorName": "Accenture",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 30,
  "pageCount": 41,
  "prevPage": 29,
  "nextPage": 31,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "diagnose",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 4,
  "notes": "Part of a 'Top 10 trends' series. Uses a combination of line charts and a bar chart to illustrate structural economic decline.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "action_title",
    "subtitle_text",
    "line_chart",
    "bar_chart_vertical",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-cc27462f852b/30",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-cc27462f852b",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-cc27462f852b.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-cc27462f852b#slide-30",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.72,
        "y": 0.73
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Exports have been a key recent driver of growth given weakness in domestic consumption and investment. US tariffs are likely to hurt this lever, slowing growth below historic levels",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d0cc2bad-dfc7-4d7f-96a0-e28320394b50",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Exports have been a key recent driver of growth given weakness in domestic consumption and investment; US tariffs are likely to hurt this lever, slowing growth below historic levels",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-a672-7739-9cf4-c2ef40a3ae69",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.23,
        "w": 0.23,
        "x": 0.28,
        "y": 0.32
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "The working age population is in decline",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f8c439d2-fee5-494a-acfe-0a29b4c0c898",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.23,
        "w": 0.23,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "FDI turned negative for 1st time in 25 years",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "63d7fc68-8aa0-4b4c-a3ca-5f16e4c3fe23",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.23,
        "w": 0.23,
        "x": 0.28,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Consumer confidence is near record lows",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6e957171-91f4-4e8a-95bd-0aa301e60b35",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.56,
        "w": 0.44,
        "x": 0.53,
        "y": 0.32
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Drivers of China's GDP real growth rate",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "908eaeac-58c6-49cc-88a9-967b0934f4cf",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.23,
        "w": 0.23,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.32
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Debt-to-GDP is at an all time high",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da244d97-06e3-461d-b00f-502434c2f910",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Quarterly contributions to YoY real GDP growth: 10%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-a672-7739-9cf4-c4d8f3a974a7",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.65,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source(s): National Bureau of Statistics of China, National Institution for Finance & Development, Haver Analytics, Accenture Strategy analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c40d3560-dd31-4ee7-91dd-06e1398707ae",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.94,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.08
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "China faces structural challenges including its debt, demographics, consumer and FDI. Its economy is increasingly reliant on exports for growth, creating a risk from higher tariffs",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f762f712-4561-4f9a-a9e4-74a7d425ec54",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.03,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "6. China's slowing growth",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "405e3b2f-cb62-4345-91d8-23ae521d2d28",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "metricRaw": "Quarterly contributions to YoY real GDP growth",
      "numberRaw": "10%",
      "numberKind": "percent",
      "actionTitle": "China faces structural challenges including its debt, demographics, consumer and FDI. Its economy is increasingly reliant on exports for growth, creating a risk from higher tariffs",
      "calloutText": "Exports have been a key recent driver of growth given weakness in domestic consumption and investment; US tariffs are likely to hurt this lever, slowing growth below historic levels",
      "numberScale": null,
      "numberValue": 10,
      "metricFamily": "growth_rate",
      "numberCurrency": null
    }
  ],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0d40-7758-be41-13c08579d4df",
      "evidence": "Title: China faces structural challenges including debt, demographics, consumer and FDI",
      "confidence": 90
    },
    {
      "name": "Chart Selection Guide",
      "slug": "chart-selection-guide",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0d40-7758-be41-15afe4f1ea9e",
      "evidence": "Charts of export reliance and structural drivers",
      "confidence": 70
    },
    {
      "name": "Waterfall chart",
      "slug": "waterfall-chart",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "e4f14569-3486-47a3-b4a0-43d29befffa8",
      "evidence": "Although not explicitly mentioned, the description of drivers of China's GDP real growth rate suggests a potential waterfall chart.",
      "confidence": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 39,
      "from": 19,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0680-7418-820c-db98ae3fbea7",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Evidence & Proof",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof",
      "evidence": "Per-trend deep dives with charts, scenario cuts and frameworks across 21 slides",
      "position": 4,
      "confidence": 90,
      "parentBeatName": "Evidence",
      "parentBeatSlug": "evidence"
    },
    {
      "to": 39,
      "from": 19,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0680-7418-820c-e4ee1b18111a",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Implications (So What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-implications-so-what",
      "evidence": "Per-trend market landscape and diagnosis slides articulating risks",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 65,
      "parentBeatName": "Reflection",
      "parentBeatSlug": "reflection"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 31,
      "from": 30,
      "name": "So What Cascade",
      "slug": "41-so-what-cascade",
      "bestFor": "Data presentations, executive summaries, driving to recommendations",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-07fe-70ce-8d37-135994e2e918",
      "evidence": "Diagnosis of China debt/demographics/exports paired with adapt-and-hedge recommendation",
      "position": 10,
      "objective": "China structural risks -> adapt + hedge recommendation",
      "structure": "The Data -> So What? (Insight 1) -> So What? (Insight 2) -> So What? (The Action)",
      "confidence": 80,
      "description": "Chain insights together, each answering 'so what?' until you reach the actionable conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}