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  "documentTitle": "Ready for resilience How to navigate the new tariff landscape",
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      "text": "Lastly, in the case of a disorderly escalation, the intensifying and increasingly unpredictable nature of the trade war is likely to create a vicious cycle of deteriorating business and consumer confidence, financial market volatility and supply chain disruptions. As U.S. recession would likely become unavoidable in this scenario, as would a broader global downturn, with spillovers to most markets and industries.",
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      "text": "In the holding the line scenario, both the inflation impulse and growth drag from tariffs are likely to be amplified. Higher tariff rates on a broader range of products and countries will make it more likely that the one-off price increases generally associated with tariffs convert to more persistent inflation pressures due to second-round effects—such as rising consumer inflation expectations, anticipatory price hikes by companies, and rising wage demands by workers with eroded real incomes. Parallel policy initiatives such as immigration restrictions, or federal workforce reductions under DOGE, may further contribute to a weakening of demand. While there could be some growth offsets in the form of tax cuts and deregulation, these may not start to kick in until next year. The Federal Reserve may also be reluctant to step in with monetary stimulus as it tries to contain tariff-related inflation pressures. In this scenario, a U.S. recession becomes a significant risk.",
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