{ "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-b25475eca565", "docSlug": "cd685fa618181a56", "documentTitle": "Ready for resilience How to navigate the new tariff landscape", "authorId": "Accenture", "authorName": "Accenture", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.778, "pageNumber": 10, "pageCount": 19, "prevPage": 9, "nextPage": 11, "slideType": "scenario_analysis", "function": "analyze_data", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide outlines three distinct economic scenarios based on U.S. trade policy trajectories.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-b25475eca565/10", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-b25475eca565", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-b25475eca565.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-b25475eca565#slide-10", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Each of these scenarios could create significant headwinds for the U.S. and global economy.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-fefa-773b-abbc-ef0396835df9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "U.S. effective tariff rate: 40%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-fefa-773b-abbc-f2c3cd6bd655", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.65, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Each of these scenarios could create significant headwinds for the U.S. and global economy. Though \"pragmatic de-escalation\" would scale back the magnitude of the tariff shock, it would still leave U.S. tariffs at much higher levels than at the beginning of the year or at any point since the 1930s. This would renew price pressures at a time when recent disinflation momentum has already begun to stall and prolong the cost-of-living crisis for U.S. households. The resulting drag on GDP growth—both from the price pressures on consumer spending, and the dampening effect of high policy uncertainty on business capex—may not be large enough to trigger a U.S. recession. However, it could still push the U.S. economy into a state of low growth and high inflation, known as stagflation, and significantly curtail U.S. imports from countries most impacted by U.S. tariffs, weighing down their economies as well.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "0754b41c-3a6f-4d6a-aa0f-d78bd416e4c7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.37, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In the first scenario, \"pragmatic de-escalation\", reciprocal tariff reductions are negotiated for most countries, as well as possible exemptions from some of the product-specific tariffs. The first step of this process is already playing out with the April 9 pause of the higher reciprocal tariffs. In this scenario, the Administration may choose to maintain the minimum 10% universal tariff for two key reasons: (1) to preserve some support for the Administration's re-industrialization and fiscal revenue objectives; and (2) to limit the scope for tariff evasion via transshipment and other methods, something the Administration has consistently voiced as a concern. This scenario outcome, our analysis shows, could bring the U.S.' effective tariff rate back down to a range of 15-17% (compared to the estimated 29% at present).", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "239c7a4d-986e-4421-b539-12b4c246711f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "What about the impact of the new U.S. tariff regime on the U.S. economy itself? That depends very much on the duration of the current tariffs and the potential for them to change in the coming weeks and months. This will be a function not only of how strongly other countries retaliate, but also how the Trump administration prioritizes certain tariff-related strategic objectives, as well its tolerance for inflation and economic disruption. Though implementation of the higher reciprocal tariffs on all countries (except China) has been paused for now, some of these increases could still go into effect later depending on the outcomes of bilateral negotiations and shifts in the focus of the Trump Administration's objectives.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "283a4085-da02-4a5c-ae3f-3e3249271c02", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.65, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In the third scenario, \"disorderly escalation\", failed negotiations and/or significant retaliation by other countries would cause tariff rates to spiral higher, and the trade war could broaden to include restrictions on cross-border services, technology and investment. This outcome could push the U.S.' effective tariff rate north of 40% and also result in considerable and widespread increases in the tariff rates other countries charge on the U.S.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6e6e4596-0f78-46e8-a7d7-42f5005e9cc7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.37, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In the second scenario, \"holding the line\", certain trading partners are able to secure tariff reductions from the U.S. if they offer particularly large concessions. But for most others, the threatened higher reciprocal tariffs are ultimately re-instated. This could be the outcome of a hardline negotiating approach by the U.S. and a high bar for granting tariff relief. It could also reflect renewed prioritization of re-industrialization as the U.S.' main strategic objective, and the belief that this can only be meaningfully achieved if higher tariffs are ultimately implemented and maintained for an extended period. Under this scenario, additional product-level tariffs currently under consideration (such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals) would also be implemented in support of re-industrialization and national security considerations. Collectively, this would keep the U.S. effective tariff in the vicinity of 30%.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "aaae640e-d333-4593-8c13-7826f92ce1b3", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.26, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The interaction of these different variables could give rise to at least three broad future tariff scenarios. Given the high level of uncertainty at play and the frequent shifts in U.S. trade policies in recent weeks, these should be viewed as illustrative signposts along a continuum of possible outcomes.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c82c68f2-881f-4820-b47b-a2234aaa6b20", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.01, "x": 0.96, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "title", "text": "10", "attrs": null, "subkind": "subtitle", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "49c796d1-2e1f-4110-a602-a01c29b587e8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Ready for resilience", "attrs": null, "subkind": "subtitle", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "dfec4d95-7fa7-457d-b407-5258fa34e8d9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Scenario planning", "slug": "scenario-planning", "agent": null, "layer": "block", "matchId": "f5e4da6b-9cac-445f-bedf-af3a712911b0", "evidence": "keyword-coverage: scenario, uncertainty", "confidence": 0.2 }, { "name": "The Rule of Three", "slug": "the-rule-of-three", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "block", "matchId": "019dd95a-0e0a-742d-9e89-ac1a699897b7", "evidence": "Exactly three scenarios mapped along a continuum of escalation.", "confidence": 75 }, { "name": "Chunking", "slug": "chunking", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "matchId": "019dd95a-0e0a-742d-9e89-a060769798d2", "evidence": "Three labeled scenarios in bold ('pragmatic de-escalation', 'holding the line', 'disorderly escalation').", "confidence": 80 }, { "name": "Parallel Structure", "slug": "parallel-structure", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "matchId": "019dd95a-0e0a-742d-9e89-a4945571d285", "evidence": "Each scenario follows same template: name, mechanism, resulting tariff range, economic outcome.", "confidence": 80 }, { "name": "Scenario Analysis", "slug": "scenario-analysis", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "a8e94716-ebf3-4134-a7e9-12575321f097", "evidence": "The interaction of these different variables could give rise to at least three broad future tariff scenarios.", "confidence": 0.9 }, { "name": "So What? Test", "slug": "so-what-test", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-0e0a-742d-9e89-a845053920d9", "evidence": "Closing line 'Each of these scenarios could create significant headwinds' draws the implication.", "confidence": 70 } ], "frameworks": [ { "name": "Scenario Planning", "slug": null, "matchId": "019dd95a-1ca5-70bb-bb9e-14f785136ade", "evidence": "Three named scenarios (pragmatic de-escalation, holding the line, disorderly escalation).", "confidence": 85 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 11, "from": 6, "beatId": "019dd95a-0680-7418-820e-5b0eafae025a", "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit", "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit", "beatName": "Problem & Complication", "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-problem-complication", "evidence": "Section 'economic impact', uneven exposure, retaliation, three recession scenarios.", "position": 2, "confidence": 88, "parentBeatName": "Complication", "parentBeatSlug": "complication" }, { "to": 11, "from": 4, "beatId": "019dd95a-0680-7418-820e-6bc2a041d400", "arcName": "The Transformation Tale", "arcSlug": "transformation-tale", "beatName": "Current Reality (Pain)", "beatSlug": "transformation-tale-current-reality-pain", "evidence": "Tariffs spiking, recession risk, scenarios all bad.", "position": 1, "confidence": 55, "parentBeatName": "Complication", "parentBeatSlug": "complication" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 10, "name": "Scenario Fork", "slug": "35-scenario-fork", "bestFor": "Strategic planning, risk analysis, board presentations", "matchId": "019dd95a-07fe-70ce-8d38-a29d0be48ff7", "evidence": "Three labeled scenarios — pragmatic de-escalation, holding the line, disorderly escalation — with recession-risk so-what.", "position": 3, "objective": "Lay out three forward scenarios and their implications", "structure": "The Decision Point -> Scenario A (If X) -> Scenario B (If Y) -> Scenario C (If Z) -> Recommendation", "confidence": 90, "description": "Present multiple futures based on different assumptions or decisions" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }