{
  "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414",
  "docSlug": "93b13afae2ded546",
  "documentTitle": "April Macro Brief: Special edition Tariff distress",
  "authorId": "Accenture",
  "authorName": "Accenture",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 22,
  "pageCount": 41,
  "prevPage": 21,
  "nextPage": 23,
  "slideType": "scenario_analysis",
  "function": "quantify_impact",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 6,
  "notes": "The chart uses a stacked bar format to show components of GDP impact, with a diamond marker for the total impact.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "action_title",
    "bar_chart_stacked",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414/22",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414#slide-22",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.18,
        "x": 0.8,
        "y": 0.5
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "GDP impact under this disorderly scenario could be greater and is difficult to estimate due to potential for negative feedback loops and global spillovers",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b30b761c-773a-49bd-b5a3-56dd4635f79b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.5,
        "w": 0.75,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Estimated tariff impacts on US GDP, by scenario",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-stacked",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a2536a82-16ec-4c0c-8622-54753975f069",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.85
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "Notes: 1/ Assumes affected trading partners retaliate... Sources: Accenture Strategy Analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "33a22187-c044-4133-b4d6-785b4c92b979",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.15,
        "y": 0.78
      },
      "kind": "legend",
      "text": "Net trade effect; Drag on consumer spending; Drag on investment; Total impact",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "28529eed-41c3-4af4-8ffd-b70a9a5906a5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Incremental impact to US real GDP (p.p. change over 1-year horizon): -4.7",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-a672-7739-9cf8-710ab1b08186",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.1,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Even in a de-escalation scenario, the tariff-related hit to US GDP could be on the order of 0.5 p.p, putting the economy at growing risk of stagflation",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f1b2568f-af94-4e3a-b285-dbf12030d519",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "metricRaw": "Incremental impact to US real GDP (p.p. change over 1-year horizon)",
      "numberRaw": "-4.7",
      "numberKind": "plain",
      "actionTitle": "Even in a de-escalation scenario, the tariff-related hit to US GDP could be on the order of 0.5 p.p, putting the economy at growing risk of stagflation",
      "calloutText": "GDP impact under this disorderly scenario could be greater and is difficult to estimate due to potential for negative feedback loops and global spillovers",
      "numberScale": null,
      "numberValue": -4.7,
      "metricFamily": "market_size",
      "numberCurrency": null
    }
  ],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Parallel Structure",
      "slug": "parallel-structure",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "loop",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0bbb-77da-b1d5-37b3e7d0ad7e",
      "evidence": "Loop replays same chart-type structure for inflation / households / states.",
      "confidence": 75
    },
    {
      "name": "Progressive Disclosure",
      "slug": "progressive-disclosure",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "loop",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0bbb-77da-b1d5-3882d3e36c2a",
      "evidence": "Loop unpacks impact sequentially from GDP -> CPI -> household -> sub-national.",
      "confidence": 65
    },
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0bbb-77da-b1d5-2bc6862b98b8",
      "evidence": "Title: 'Even in a de-escalation scenario, the tariff-related hit to US GDP could be on the order of 0.5 p.p.'",
      "confidence": 90
    },
    {
      "name": "Annotation",
      "slug": "annotation",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0bbb-77da-b1d5-2d4b2578ff22",
      "evidence": "Callout box flags negative feedback loops behind the -4.7 disorderly bar.",
      "confidence": 90
    },
    {
      "name": "Color Strategy",
      "slug": "color-strategy",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-0bbb-77da-b1d5-309d616ca214",
      "evidence": "Stacked-component palette decomposes drag (consumer / investment / trade).",
      "confidence": 80
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "Scenario Comparison Chart",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1ca5-70bb-bb9b-3209682c3b24",
      "evidence": "Stacked bars comparing GDP impact components across the same three scenarios.",
      "confidence": 80
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 37,
      "from": 20,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0680-7418-8208-cb2ca5df426b",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Implications (So What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-implications-so-what",
      "evidence": "Americas/EMEA/APAC region impacts and industry exposure — the consequences.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 85,
      "parentBeatName": "Reflection",
      "parentBeatSlug": "reflection"
    },
    {
      "to": 37,
      "from": 20,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0680-7418-8208-daca7c03f11c",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Evidence & Proof",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-solution-approach",
      "evidence": "Quantified country/region/industry impacts.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 60,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 26,
      "from": 22,
      "name": "Zoom In",
      "slug": "06-zoom-in",
      "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-07fd-712f-b772-8dff9cacd4ce",
      "evidence": "Progressive zoom from national GDP impact down to household cost ($2.2-4.9k), then state-level map, then Canada spillover.",
      "position": 4,
      "objective": "Americas regional zoom: US GDP -> inflation -> households -> states -> Canada",
      "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication",
      "confidence": 80,
      "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}