{ "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414", "docSlug": "93b13afae2ded546", "documentTitle": "April Macro Brief: Special edition Tariff distress", "authorId": "Accenture", "authorName": "Accenture", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.778, "pageNumber": 19, "pageCount": 41, "prevPage": 18, "nextPage": 20, "slideType": "scenario_analysis", "function": "compare_options", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 3, "notes": "The slide uses a 3-column scenario matrix structure to compare policy outcomes.", "elementsJson": [ "action_title", "subtitle_text", "comparison_table", "bullet_list", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414/19", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-998cd2e4c414", 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"** In terms of scenario likelihood, the coming weeks will be informative of how the US administration approaches country negotiations and concessions **", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "99551871-7e12-4c3f-bef2-00e0486914ea", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Overall US effective tariff rate increase: 40 p.p. or higher", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-a672-7739-9cf8-35adbd722a4b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Comparison table of three scenarios: Pragmatic de-escalation, Holding the line, and Disorderly escalation across description, drivers, and tariff rate metrics.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "scenario", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bc782dd1-aa9f-4edf-b35f-ad48464f38b2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Evolution of US tariff policies will depend on how Administration balances its different strategic objectives, its tolerance for inflation and economic disruptions, and degree of trading partner retaliation", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9b1e5eb8-dbd5-4e5a-9977-1f75e4e2d35c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Possible future US tariff scenarios", "attrs": null, "subkind": "subtitle", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "35a78041-75b9-4e2b-a41d-ea7c01269926", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [ { "metricRaw": "Overall US effective tariff rate 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"consultants-gambit-problem-complication", "evidence": "Aggressive tariff rollout, scenarios deteriorating.", "position": 2, "confidence": 60, "parentBeatName": "Complication", "parentBeatSlug": "complication" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 19, "from": 16, "name": "Scenario Fork", "slug": "35-scenario-fork", "bestFor": "Strategic planning, risk analysis, board presentations", "matchId": "019dd95a-07fd-712f-b772-88b9666879fd", "evidence": "Country-specific tariff rates -> retaliation tracker -> bubble exposure map -> 3-scenario fork (Pragmatic / Holding / Disorderly) on p.19.", "position": 3, "objective": "Lay out country exposure and retaliation logic ending in three forward scenarios", "structure": "The Decision Point -> Scenario A (If X) -> Scenario B (If Y) -> Scenario C (If Z) -> Recommendation", "confidence": 85, "description": "Present multiple futures based on different assumptions or decisions" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }