{
  "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-7e4af6d8c3d4",
  "docSlug": "1bb7aa636aa231dc",
  "documentTitle": "True-Luxury Global Consumer Insights",
  "authorId": "BCG",
  "authorName": "BCG",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 7,
  "pageCount": 80,
  "prevPage": 6,
  "nextPage": 8,
  "slideType": "scenario_analysis",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 4,
  "notes": "The chart shows a base bar for 2022 and a projected bar for 2023 with two potential growth ranges.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "bar_chart_vertical",
    "bullet_list"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-7e4af6d8c3d4/7",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-7e4af6d8c3d4",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-7e4af6d8c3d4.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-7e4af6d8c3d4#slide-7",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "We envision 2 evolution scenarios based on key geographies outlook",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-acb5-76f0-a0a8-5cb6d4470db6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.18,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "2022 vs 2023F growth comparison",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4ff19d86-c968-4c07-8c99-9fe127f4c4fb",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.32,
        "x": 0.65,
        "y": 0.58
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Base Scenario: Slow-down of Western Consumers not compensated by Asian acceleration. More cautious outlook for China (~+15% growth). Limited confidence of consumers in Western markets.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0b958cdf-58d9-4f17-9f0e-201c0eda5053",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.32,
        "x": 0.65,
        "y": 0.23
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Optimistic Scenario: High expected global growth. Strong restart of China Luxury market (~+20% vs '22). Solid confidence of US consumers.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "262cf380-f79c-492c-a4f1-e8d9269569e0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Market growth vs 2022: +11-13%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-acb5-76f0-a0a8-629b1b1aaf8e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.34,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: BCG Fashion & Luxury Market Model as of June 2023; BCG Analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b92335f0-5485-499a-82ce-22186a2ea24f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.28,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.28
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Unprecedented complexity to make Luxury market forecasts | Today's macroeconomic volatility requires an assessment on a weekly horizon",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3c7ae123-b629-4193-80c8-20a6651c9953",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.25,
        "x": 0.36,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Personal Luxury Market – 2023 expected scenarios",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c64fd10a-f685-4ca4-a0e5-da57bec66437",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "metricRaw": "Market growth vs 2022",
      "numberRaw": "+11-13%",
      "numberKind": "percent",
      "actionTitle": "Unprecedented complexity to make Luxury market forecasts | Today's macroeconomic volatility requires an assessment on a weekly horizon",
      "calloutText": "We envision 2 evolution scenarios based on key geographies outlook",
      "numberScale": null,
      "numberValue": -13,
      "metricFamily": "growth_rate",
      "numberCurrency": null
    }
  ],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Contrast Pairs",
      "slug": "contrast-pairs",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "loop",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1575-7358-9709-1d9214c1fdad",
      "evidence": "Optimistic vs Base scenarios shown side by side.",
      "confidence": 80
    },
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1575-7358-9709-1b46e5ce0f9c",
      "evidence": "'Unprecedented complexity...weekly horizon' is a so-what.",
      "confidence": 90
    },
    {
      "name": "Annotation",
      "slug": "annotation",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-1575-7358-9709-2346e3ee8283",
      "evidence": "+11-13% and +7-9% callout bubbles annotate the bars.",
      "confidence": 70
    },
    {
      "name": "Scenario Analysis",
      "slug": "scenario-analysis",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "2b0ea0d0-77c9-40b8-8ac2-b558fada72c4",
      "evidence": "We envision 2 evolution scenarios based on key geographies outlook",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "scenario_analysis",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "17a5fa2a-aa59-41e1-bcec-52c073f894e9",
      "evidence": "The slide explicitly outlines two distinct future scenarios (Optimistic vs Base) for market growth.",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 9,
      "from": 1,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0702-74a3-87e2-ba0a4bf0e718",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Situation & Context",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-situation-context",
      "evidence": "Study setup p3, market thrives p6, pyramid p9 frame the world.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 70,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    },
    {
      "to": 17,
      "from": 5,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0702-74a3-87e2-cc1dcbd2ee5d",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Facts (What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what",
      "evidence": "Market recovery and consumer sentiment data dominate this stretch.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 55,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 9,
      "from": 6,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-088c-724c-b30e-e8649fdf4159",
      "evidence": "Recovery p6, scenarios p7, China p8 build to pyramid conclusion p9.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "Stack market evidence to conclude top of pyramid is the priority",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 70,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}