{ "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-4ad422dfb179", "docSlug": "237dce6514343417", "documentTitle": "PwC's 22nd Annual Global CEO Survey", "authorId": "PwC", "authorName": "PwC", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.776, "pageNumber": 9, "pageCount": 48, "prevPage": 8, "nextPage": 10, "slideType": "ceo_quote", "function": "summarize", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide contains a mix of narrative analysis and a prominent CEO quote.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-4ad422dfb179/9", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-4ad422dfb179", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-4ad422dfb179.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a167-4ad422dfb179#slide-9", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Across every region, the share of CEOs who believe the global growth rate will ‘decline’ has grown significantly.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-d9f3-76ef-993c-a61fe87e5361", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.27, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The rise in relative pessimism evidenced in the survey is not that surprising. Most major economic models have adjusted their 2019 forecasts downward. In fact, many economists see a slowdown as overdue. International trade tensions, political upset and uncertainty, and stricter monetary and fiscal policy all play out differently but with the same general result across regions: a more cautious outlook on global economic growth. All over the world, we have seen populist politicians exercise increasing influence over economic policy. There is a perceptible shift away from reliance on global governance structures designed to facilitate cooperation on pressing issues such as trade, climate change, and nuclear proliferation. The result has been one recognised by the World Economic Forum: a trend toward nation-state unilateralism and, consequently, greater global fragmentation and uncertainty.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "030172a2-fd1a-4e6d-943e-ce95c1678294", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.63, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PIYUSH GUPTA\nCEO, DBS SINGAPORE, THE LARGEST BANK IN SOUTHEAST ASIA BY ASSETS", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a2abe68c-5897-4b4c-924e-f11037e6329c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.037, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Across every region, the share of CEOs who believe the global growth rate will ‘decline’ has grown significantly (see Exhibit 2). Optimism among North America’s CEOs dropped the most sharply, from 63% to 37%, while the percentage signalling a slowdown in global growth moved from a negligible 3% to 28%. The result is a fairly even distribution of sentiment between ‘improve’, ‘decline’, and ‘stay the same’ with regard to global economic growth in 2019. That balanced response holds basically true for all the regions except Asia-Pacific, which has switched places this year with North America as the most buoyant when it comes to global economic growth expectations. Even in Asia-Pacific, CEOs are less sanguine than they were, with those expecting improved economic growth falling from 60% to 50%.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c8c9e0cf-dc79-47f0-875f-79f2d001ab10", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "x": 0.63, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Global growth will be somewhat slower, but I don’t see a massive recession coming any time in the next 18 months. What could throw that off, obviously, is ‘event risk’, particularly around China, not so much trade as leverage and idiosyncratic counterparty events given the amount of bonds issued out of China. I do think the psychology around trade is a risk. There’s a general environment of skittishness, and there could be feedback loops from that into the general economy.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "testimonial", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "3f0ade01-c27a-4b06-88bd-70db4bb5b7d5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Global growth will be somewhat slower, but I don’t see a massive recession coming any time in the next 18 months. What could throw that off, obviously, is ‘event risk’, particularly around China, not so much trade as leverage and idiosyncratic counterparty events given the amount of bonds issued out of China. I do think the psychology around trade is a risk. There’s a general environment of skittishness, and there could be feedback loops from that into the general economy. — Piyush Gupta, CEO, DBS Singapore, the largest bank in Southeast Asia by assets", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-d9f3-76ef-993c-a8356779892e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Authority Bias", "slug": "authority-bias", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019de8a9-f87b-71e2-a846-97952c17ccfc", "evidence": "named CEO quote with attribution", "confidence": 85 }, { "name": "Credibility Transfer", "slug": "credibility-transfer", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019de8a9-f89f-7561-a3c0-97be5c8ec875", "evidence": "executive testimonial validates survey trend", "confidence": 75 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 15, "from": 4, "beatId": "019de8a9-f32f-716a-ba07-342a8266512b", "arcName": "The Triple Take", "arcSlug": "triple-take", "beatName": "The Facts (What)", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Section 1 'Reality check' — sentiment, regional, GDP correlation charts", "position": 1, "confidence": 80, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null }, { "to": 15, "from": 6, "beatId": "019de8a9-f3e9-74ff-9f29-d851ce7536a5", "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit", "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit", "beatName": "Problem & Complication", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Confidence falling sharply, predicts subdued GDP", "position": 2, "confidence": 60, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [ { "to": 11, "from": 6, "name": "Pattern Hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "matchId": "019de8a9-f47b-709c-86c7-271d7c52eeab", "evidence": "Sequence of independent exhibits (sentiment line, regional stacks, revenue confidence, -16% callout) all converging on same pattern.", "position": 1, "objective": "Establish that CEO confidence is declining — broadly and sharply", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "confidence": 80, "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }