{ "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a165-ae7cfebd9a2b", "docSlug": "ee86f597820ba5b5", "documentTitle": "Trend Compendium 2030 Megatrend 2 Globalization & future markets", "authorId": "misc", "authorName": "Roland Berger", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.445, "pageNumber": 33, "pageCount": 37, "prevPage": 32, "nextPage": 34, "slideType": "key_messages", "function": "summarize", "density": "balanced", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The slide uses a bulleted list to explain the benefits of scenario planning. The graphic on the bottom right is a stylized icon representing financial or strategic planning.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "bullet_list", "infographic" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.95, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a165-ae7cfebd9a2b/33", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a165-ae7cfebd9a2b", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a165-ae7cfebd9a2b.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a165-ae7cfebd9a2b#slide-33", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Companies that factor in appropriate scenario recommendations are at an advantage over competitors lacking in scenario planning since it enables the former to react quickly, objectively and rationally.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-f95c-723d-8f2f-578e144c18d5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.7, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "subkind": "infographic", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "73083620-a058-45c3-9c17-b2b5bf1be744", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Use scenario planning to identify and seize opportunities, to minimize plausible risks and to create flexible structures to match volatilities and uncertainties. This becomes increasingly important as it is evident that political, social and economic turbulences also occur in developed – and normally perceived as more stable – countries\nSophisticated scenario planning facilitates the inclusion of a variety of factors and thus grants an opportunity to reflect the various facets of globalization in your analysis. Also, combine scenario planning with the set-up of a balanced footprint, which allows for dynamic actions and reinforced internal, firm-wide stability\nCompanies that factor in appropriate scenario recommendations are at an advantage over competitors lacking in scenario planning since it enables the former to react quickly, objectively and rationally. In the fast-moving VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous) world companies operate today this is becoming increasingly important. Scenarios for market entry or expansion can be planned and measured according to different criteria such as GDP growth, FDI etc.\nBesides identifying opportunities, scenario techniques help to minimize risks. As regional events quickly attain international relevance in a globalized world, it becomes increasingly difficult to predict economic downturns. As most will be affected e.g. by an international crisis, it is a question of who is well prepared and who recovers best. Taking the right action in a speedy and informed manner is critical. Early indicators for each scenario therefore need to be defined and analyzed to help identify and cope with a variety of plausible futures as quickly as possible", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b33e4804-5542-46f5-859c-f8bd3ee74e41", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Use scenario planning to think beyond the status quo in an uncertain world", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1e2f57c2-67f5-4c0c-b1be-f29988e7418c", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Scenario planning", "slug": "scenario-planning", "agent": null, "layer": "block", "matchId": "cfd35917-d2c2-4dfd-936f-702c7a0e4670", "evidence": "keyword-coverage: plausible future, scenario", "confidence": 0.2 }, { "name": "List presentation", "slug": "list-presentation", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "f209a044-24f1-40e2-8f57-cd66864c6d48", "evidence": "components contain list/bullet", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [ { "name": "scenario-planning", "slug": null, "matchId": "07c01fae-4961-48f3-a0f9-4110e55f5800", "evidence": "The slide explicitly discusses the use of scenario planning to navigate uncertainty.", "confidence": 1 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 36, "from": 29, "beatId": "5a149d98-7a01-4fcf-9f69-18004cb6722c", "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence", "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence", "beatName": "Action", "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-action", "evidence": "The final slides provide strategic implications and call to action.", "position": 4, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Resolution", "parentBeatSlug": "resolution" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 36, "from": 29, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "8a072a05-6474-4425-b738-86dc7024f4f8", "evidence": "The document highlights the importance of strategic action.", "position": 1, "objective": "The cost of not seizing market potential", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }