{
  "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-f756cd395173",
  "docSlug": "218e190f9c6fa751",
  "documentTitle": "Fletcher Building – economic uncertainty analysis",
  "authorId": "misc",
  "authorName": "Deloitte",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.778,
  "pageNumber": 9,
  "pageCount": 19,
  "prevPage": 8,
  "nextPage": 10,
  "slideType": "scenario_analysis",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 30,
  "notes": "The chart uses a combination of bar charts for historical data and a mix of bars and lines for the forecast scenarios.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "subtitle_text",
    "bar_chart_vertical",
    "line_chart",
    "callout_box",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-f756cd395173/9",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-f756cd395173",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-f756cd395173.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-f756cd395173#slide-9",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The base outlook for commercial WPIP shows pre-pandemic levels of activity could be achieved by around FY25, supported by continued confidence to invest to alleviate capacity constraints.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-edad-70d9-bd0d-8db9eedca8ab",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "New Zealand commercial work put in place, NZD $b, FY07 to FY25 (real values in constant 2009/10 prices)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f98e2a3a-0db9-410d-afec-4c846eaf0400",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.66,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Upside scenario - 'sigh of relief': Under the upside scenario, stronger private investment and lower inflation primarily drive a stronger outlook for commercial WPIP.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "511f5aae-60af-4ff5-8275-c0d83a508658",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.35,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Downside scenario - 'stagflation': The combination of weak demand and supply, and increasing costs means commercial WPIP under the downside scenario remains lower than the base case throughout the forecast period.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "96086ba5-2421-44ca-9970-d9c916b64055",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.7
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Base scenario: Commercial WPIP falls in FY22 and FY24 compared to the year prior but ultimately recovers to close to pre-pandemic levels by FY25, driven by public and private investment lifting following the shock of the first pandemic wave in this sector.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e87c2b6f-d040-4eae-89b7-0fe291980796",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Commercial WPIP (NZD $b): 6.7",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-edad-70d9-bd0d-93a01f153c7c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.06,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.1
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "The base outlook for commercial WPIP shows pre-pandemic levels of activity could be achieved by around FY25, supported by continued confidence to invest to alleviate capacity constraints.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "93379bd6-8e4a-455f-9165-07c26e10cf9f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.66
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Note: Data is in June years and in constant 09/10 prices",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "10410266-1fc6-4b9c-9cf9-9cd817c9c76b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.04,
        "y": 0.04
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Step 4: Outlook for commercial work put in place - New Zealand",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "3c0f7f9b-767b-42d8-a515-e84da72b5f7d",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 16,
      "from": 8,
      "beatId": "e59f3242-ddde-42d7-b423-c44247722fe2",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Impact & Next Steps",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-impact-next-steps",
      "evidence": "Scenario analysis and results",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Resolution",
      "parentBeatSlug": "resolution"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 9,
      "from": 6,
      "name": "Zoom In",
      "slug": "06-zoom-in",
      "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis",
      "matchId": "da5c52b7-0c2a-4112-ad9b-fa04fcfd4b6c",
      "evidence": "Step 1: Uncertainty scenarios",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Understand uncertainty scenarios",
      "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}