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  "documentTitle": "Fletcher Building – economic uncertainty analysis",
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      "text": "By back-testing the forecast equation, Deloitte Access Economics was able to obtain mean square error rates typically of less than 5% (which is the best practice benchmark) for residential, commercial and infrastructure work put in place / work done.",
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      "text": "Model estimates compared to actual values, NZ residential WPIP, year-to growth",
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      "text": "Forecast equations were developed for three WPIP or work done market segments (residential, commercial and infrastructure), across both New Zealand and Australia. Modelling WPIP or work done in year-to growth terms was selected because it removes the influence of units and best demonstrates the trends and cycles in the series. Back-testing showed the forecast equations have predictive value. The chart opposite is an example of the model estimates (black dashed lines) compared to the actual values (green solid lines) for residential WPIP in New Zealand.",
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      "text": "A range of statistical measures were used to test the robustness of the forecast equations, including mean squared error (a measure of statistical accuracy). By back-testing the forecast equation, Deloitte Access Economics was able to obtain mean square error rates typically of less than 5% (which is the best practice benchmark) for residential, commercial and infrastructure work put in place / work done.",
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      "text": "Year-to growth %: 5%",
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      "text": "Source: Deloitte Access Economics",
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      "text": "Deloitte Access Economics developed forecast equations to test the relationship between macroeconomic drivers and WPIP in New Zealand and work done in Australia",
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