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  "documentTitle": "Turkish NPL Purchasing Market Overview and the way forward",
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  "notes": "The chart uses three different projection scenarios (Macro Optimistic, Base, Conservative) for the years 2021-2023.",
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      "text": "The total net SME and corporate NPL inflow is expected to be between TRY 158-243 billion between 2021-2023. As a result, the gross SME and corporate outstanding NPL balance is expected to reach TRY 259-321 billion by 2023.",
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      "text": "Historical and projected NPL inflow volumes",
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      "text": "Historical, Macro Optimistic, Macro Base, Macro Conservative",
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      "text": "NPL inflow volume: TRY 259-321 billion",
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      "text": "The sharp increase in 2018-19 was mainly due to the FX volatility and macroeconomic slowdown. The total net SME and corporate NPL inflow is expected to be between TRY 158-243 billion between 2021-2023.",
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      "text": "Based on our regression analysis, both the real GDP growth rate and FX rates affect SME and corporate NPL inflows. Net SME and corporate NPL inflow is expected to increase by 2.1-11.6% p.a. between 2019-23.",
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      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Additionally, loans granted by the government initiatives in 2020 are expected to contribute to the NPL inflows in the following due to potentially lax underwriting practices.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: BRSA, Audited annual financial statements and KAP (Public Disclosure Platform) disclosures of Banks, Leasing, Factoring, Financing and Asset Management Companies, IMF, Turkstat, Strategy& analysis",
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      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Net SME and Corporate NPL inflow volume expected growth [TRY bn, 2010-23]",
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