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  "documentTitle": "Turkish NPL Purchasing Market Overview and the way forward",
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  "notes": "Includes a mathematical formula for NPL balance projection.",
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      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "NPL outstanding balance (t) = NPL outstanding balance (t-1) + Net NPL Inflow (t) - NPL sales (t)",
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      "text": "With the end of the forbearance measures in June 2021, it is highly expected that NPL volume on the pipeline will come back to life.",
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      "text": "The non-performing loan outstanding balance is influenced by four drivers: NPL inflows, NPL collection, NPL write-off, NPL sales.",
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      "text": "In order to estimate the NPL outstanding balance, we first forecasted \"net NPL inflows\" which is defined as NPL inflows net of collections and write-offs (excluding sales). Then, we calculated the upcoming year's NPL outstanding balance volume by adding net NPL inflow (upcoming year) to the NPL outstanding balance (previous year) and subtracting NPL sales (upcoming year).",
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      "text": "In 2020, there has been a significant increase in Stage 1 and 2 loans due to the economic slowdown caused by COVID-19, subsequent COVID-19 financial support loans provided by the government and the limit increase of the Credit Guarantee Fund. However, these loans have not been classified as NPLs yet, in compliance with the forbearance measures. With the end of the forbearance measures in June 2021, it is highly expected that NPL volume on the pipeline will come back to life.",
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