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  "documentTitle": "Trend 2050 Economics and Business",
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  "notes": "The slide highlights a shift in investment strategy from M&A to greenfield projects due to geopolitical risks.",
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      "text": "Overall, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have seen a slight decrease, but greenfield investments, a significant component of FDIs, have experienced a notable increase of 69% from 2016 to 2023",
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      "text": "Value of net cross-border M&A sales and announced greenfield FDIs globally, 2003-2023 [USD bn]",
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      "text": "Overall, foreign direct investment (FDI) flows have seen a slight decrease, but greenfield investments, a significant component of FDIs, have experienced a notable increase of 69% from 2016 to 2023. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have dropped by 57% due to increased geopolitical risks, regulatory scrutiny, and rising interest rates. To mitigate these risks and to diversify their supply chains, companies are turning to greenfield investments. Chinese firms are increasingly investing in Southeast Asia and Mexico to capitalize on lower labor costs and advantageous trade agreements - a strategy known as geopolitical arbitrage. These underlying FDI trends show that globalization is evolving, rather than reversing, despite indications to the contrary based on global trade openness.",
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      "text": "1) Net cross-border M&As are calculated considering sales of companies in a host economy to foreign MNEs. They exclude sales of foreign affiliates (already owned by foreign MNEs) to other foreign MNEs. Divestments (sales of foreign affiliates to domestic firms) are subtracted from the value (number). Totals exclude the financial centers in the Caribbean; 2) Greenfield investment projects refer to a form of FDI whereby a company establishes entirely new operational facilities in a foreign country from the ground up. Source: UNCTAD; Roland Berger",
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