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  "documentTitle": "Trend 2030 Scarcity of Resources",
  "authorId": "RolandBerger",
  "authorName": "Roland Berger",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a bulleted list format to explain the causal relationship between demographic/economic shifts and energy consumption.",
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      "text": "Growing population and GDP growth drive increases in energy use.",
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      "text": "1) There are several other studies describing the future development of the primary energy demand, e.g. from International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Information Administration (EIA), Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), BP and Shell. The studies describe a similar development as in the ExxonMobil study. In our Trend Compendium 2030 we mostly prefer the ExxonMobile study, esp. because this study uses two different growth rates for the time ranges from 2010 to 2025 and from 2025 to 2040",
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      "text": "Growing population and GDP growth drive increases in energy use. According to the ExxonMobil \"Outlook for Energy 2016\", total demand for primary energy will increase by 17.4% to 16.7 Gtoe by 2030.",
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      "text": "Looking at the end use sectors, industrial energy demand will increase strongest (+19.9%) by 2030, followed by transportation (+17.1%). The lowest increase is predicted for the residential/commercial sector (+15.6%).",
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      "text": "Further drivers for the increasing energy demand are increasing urbanization and expanding middle class, leading to a growing number of households and higher penetration of appliances and vehicles.",
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      "text": "Energy efficiency improvements mitigate this trend. According to the ExxonMobil study, the energy intensity (energy use per unit of GDP) will drop 17.1% between 2015 and 2030",
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      "text": "Primary energy demand: 17.4%",
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      "text": "Source: ExxonMobil",
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      "text": "Growing population, GDP growth, urbanization and the expanding middle class are main drivers for the increasing energy demand (1/2)",
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