{
  "docId": "019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-1a8945d5e745",
  "docSlug": "0bd617c5b314b6ca",
  "documentTitle": "Trend 2030 Scarcity of Resources",
  "authorId": "RolandBerger",
  "authorName": "Roland Berger",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.414,
  "pageNumber": 30,
  "pageCount": 45,
  "prevPage": 29,
  "nextPage": 31,
  "slideType": "comparison_table",
  "function": "compare_options",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 20,
  "notes": "The chart uses a 45-degree line to show commodities that would have higher risk in 2030 compared to today.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "scatter_plot",
    "bullet_list",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-1a8945d5e745/30",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-1a8945d5e745",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-1a8945d5e745.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5de0-76bd-a164-1a8945d5e745#slide-30",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "The supply risk attending to barytes, borate, molybdenum will particularly increase by 2030. Their production is predicted to move to countries with a relatively higher political risk.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-dfa5-7563-a120-73c624f40e2f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.65,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Comparison of supply risk today and in 2030 (constant production-to-reserves share)",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "scatter",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "70aba6ab-9384-4b33-80dd-954303d062ae",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.88,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.91
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "1) The values 1 (low supply risk) to 6 (high supply risk) result from a formula considering the recycling rate and substitutability of the material, the economic and political stability of each country and the production share of each country",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "aa0392bf-218f-4292-b112-9406468857b5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.45,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.57,
        "y": 0.33
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "The diagram shown here is out of a study which uses the same measure for the current supply risk as the EU study (chart 28). For the supply risk in 2030 all influence factors remain unchanged except for the production distribution in 2030. The scenario used on this slide assumes that countries continue to produce today's share of their reserves every year by 2030, resulting in a gradual shift of production towards reserve-rich countries. The supply risk attending to barytes, borate, molybdenum will particularly increase by 2030. Their production is predicted to move to countries with a relatively higher political risk",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "0e539da3-d0d4-49ae-9bb2-1d789bd4c537",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Supply risk",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-dfa5-7563-a120-747fad93109a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.97
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: ESRC/Grantham Research Institute",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "288aeee4-49f8-4b1b-aff3-90f3565b9453",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "In 2030, barytes, borate and molybdenum with increased supply risk, if countries continue to produce the same share of their reserves",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c2bef75e-bb87-4b48-affa-2ee356f6d902",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Comparison frame",
      "slug": "comparison-frame",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "a75d6fa8-6889-4212-890b-42df47cf59e5",
      "evidence": "The slide compares supply risk today and in 2030, using a comparison frame to analyze the data.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "comparison-frame",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "5f38cc22-16d6-4b51-a1ef-f08e61765d37",
      "evidence": "Scatter plot comparing current vs future supply risk",
      "confidence": 0.9
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 35,
      "from": 26,
      "beatId": "99400436-28bf-465d-b4f0-6816d194a84f",
      "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence",
      "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence",
      "beatName": "Visualization",
      "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-visualization",
      "evidence": "The document helps readers visualize the potential consequences of inaction, including regional imbalances and increased competition for resources.",
      "position": 3,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Evidence",
      "parentBeatSlug": "evidence"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 40,
      "from": 30,
      "name": "Quick Win Big Bet",
      "slug": "47-quick-win-big-bet",
      "bestFor": "Transformation planning, 100-day plans, resource allocation",
      "matchId": "54ba396e-5d33-4850-880a-77d5f351e1b6",
      "evidence": "The document provides insights into potential solutions, such as increasing recycling and reducing consumption.",
      "position": 1,
      "objective": "Identifying opportunities for quick wins and big bets on resource efficiency",
      "structure": "The Full List -> Quick Wins (Low effort, High impact) -> Big Bets (High effort, High impact) -> Sequenced Roadmap",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "description": "Separate initiatives into immediate wins and longer-term strategic bets"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}