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  "documentTitle": "What if the eurozone were to enter a recession? Roland Berger Institute",
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  "authorName": "Roland Berger",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a dual-axis chart combining line series for sentiment and bar series for GDP growth to illustrate the predictive power of sentiment indicators.",
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      "text": "But what happens in a recession and how would this new economic crisis develop? To answer these questions, we look at data of past crises in combination with next year's forecasts in order to assess what to expect.",
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      "text": "Sentiment Index",
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      "text": "Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sentiment among consumers, producers, and stock markets plummeted. Consumer confidence in particular has deteriorated sharply, falling to a new low. Similarly, producer as well as investor sentiment has deteriorated significantly over recent months. Since February, the PMI has fallen by 13% and the EURO STOXX 50 by almost 12%. In the past, such significant drops in the three sentiment indicators were a reliable indication of a coming crisis.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Oxford Economics; European Commission; S&P Global",
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      "text": "Short-term sentiment indicators have reliably announced crises in the past – Fears of another recession hitting the eurozone are well founded",
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      "name": "Cost Of Inaction",
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