{ "docId": "019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-7f487ca114ba", "docSlug": "19042afdb7c21606", "documentTitle": "What if the US dollar loses its status as the world’s reserve currency?", "authorId": "RolandBerger", "authorName": "Roland Berger", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.333, "pageNumber": 9, "pageCount": 15, "prevPage": 8, "nextPage": 10, "slideType": "geographic_map", "function": "establish_context", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 1, "notes": "The slide includes a map showing the extent of US sanctions globally, with a legend explaining the color coding.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "map", "footnote" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-7f487ca114ba/9", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-7f487ca114ba", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-7f487ca114ba.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-7f487ca114ba#slide-9", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.4, "y": 0.25 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Map of countries and officials sanctioned by the United States", "attrs": null, "subkind": "map", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "c2b7356c-069d-43bd-b342-568cfe7135ea", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.4, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "legend", "text": "Broad sanctions against the country; Some or all government officials; Persons contributing to conflict & destabilization of a country; Persons undermining countries sovereignty; Government officials contributing to conflict", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1478bd5b-d2c2-43c5-953f-fd52225a8f98", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "With the dollar as the world's reserve currency, the US holds a powerful economic tool, allowing its government to exert political influence over other countries through economic policies and trade agreements. The most recent countries to feel the full force of US sanctions are Russia and Iran. Especially the financial sanctions against Russia, which was cut from the SWIFT banking network and whose foreign held assets were seized, have startled large reserve-holding countries. Due to recent macroeconomic as well as geopolitical developments, central banks around the globe and especially those in emerging markets turned to gold in 2022, trying to diversify from the dollar and dollar holdings. In 2022, central banks around the world added a staggering 1,136 tons of gold worth about USD 70 billion to their stockpiles – more than in any other year since 1950. With CIPS, China offers an alternative to the SWIFT payment system. Furthermore, China is collaborating with the monetary authorities in Thailand, Hong Kong and the UAE in a project called mBridge, a CBDC based solution for real-time cross-border payments.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "414971f9-e947-4cc9-850b-ad0e8ed08d2e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.4, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: US Department of Treasury", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9f49fe53-5b55-4f15-9d7f-4c2b0599ef43", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "title", "text": "The dollar's strong global role enables the US to use it as a sanctioning tool, thus incentivizing sanctioned countries to seek out alternatives to the dollar", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b766bdbd-5aea-447a-b2e7-4047b3eefd88", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 13, "from": 9, "beatId": "b927803a-cc97-4640-90b8-ba3fd236a229", "arcName": "The Sparkline", "arcSlug": "sparkline", "beatName": "Evidence", "beatSlug": "evidence", "evidence": "Slides 9-13 provide evidence and analysis of the challenges to the dollar's status.", "position": 3, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [ { "to": 14, "from": 8, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "9662def4-7aeb-4b15-a78d-1a664fe35741", "evidence": "The loop starts by highlighting the implications of the dollar's decline (slide 8) and ends with the likely persistence of the dollar's status (slide 14).", "position": 0, "objective": "to highlight the implications of the dollar's decline", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" }, { "to": 13, "from": 2, "name": "Mece Breakdown", "slug": "40-mece-breakdown", "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis", "matchId": "9ac33bab-95b4-4c8d-85b5-fb23be859f92", "evidence": "The loop starts by providing an overview of the dollar's dominance (slide 2) and ends with a detailed analysis of the challenges to its status (slides 9-13).", "position": 1, "objective": "to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dollar's status", "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }