{
  "docId": "019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-45dd3831d55b",
  "docSlug": "4beafe99a355f79b",
  "documentTitle": "Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2030 Megatrend 1 Demographic dynamics",
  "authorId": "RolandBerger",
  "authorName": "Roland Berger",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.414,
  "pageNumber": 13,
  "pageCount": 36,
  "prevPage": 12,
  "nextPage": 14,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "establish_context",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 16,
  "notes": "Data from UN World Population Prospects 2017 Revision.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "bullet_list",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-45dd3831d55b/13",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-45dd3831d55b",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-45dd3831d55b.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ddf-7308-8fca-45dd3831d55b#slide-13",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "In developed countries, the biggest challenge is how to cope with the increasing old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the number of people aged 65+ per number of people aged 15-64.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-e58d-7080-a152-7f1827969eef",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.92
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "Notes: Data from the UN World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision; estimates are based on the medium-variant projection 1) Age range used by UN, World Bank and ILO",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "80712e9c-81a6-4fcb-bcd8-2191b4760c43",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.49
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Developed vs. developing: Developed countries face rising old-age dependency ratio; working age population dropping to 61% by 2030.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2dc8441b-7320-4eb1-afb9-637b8fedb354",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.26
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "World: Median age rising to 33.0 by 2030; share of 0-14 decreasing to 24%, over-65s increasing to 12%.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a795a89a-3b67-4a86-998b-a067157171a5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.75
      },
      "kind": "list",
      "text": "Developing countries: Working age population increasing by 725 million; challenge remains providing education and jobs for young population.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bullet",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ce6e4e86-203e-4cdf-bd37-12c02f92ff7f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "old-age dependency ratio: 23%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-e58d-7080-a152-82ab124a0af5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.1,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.97
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: UN DESA",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d3179a0e-5497-469e-982e-976efa0d6dd0",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.12
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "The rising old-age dependency ratio constitutes a big challenge for developed countries",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ee20bf05-7654-4201-8dd8-595d1cb51dc4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.07,
        "y": 0.05
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "2. Young vs. old countries – A world full of contrasts",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "subtitle",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "6bb91081-d941-4f98-b64b-c0bcb796c69a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "List presentation",
      "slug": "list-presentation",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "7f2d562a-99db-4136-a63a-ccb1ed4d9b1e",
      "evidence": "The slide uses bullet points to present information about different regions and their demographic challenges.",
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "name": "Problem Statement Canvas",
      "slug": "problem-statement-canvas",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "93649e74-3ed4-4d5f-a186-7d22cc9f17b6",
      "evidence": "The slide presents a challenge related to the old-age dependency ratio, framing it as a problem to be addressed.",
      "confidence": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 6,
      "beatId": "27c77e65-3dd5-42d1-863b-2a84f9f17532",
      "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence",
      "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence",
      "beatName": "Need",
      "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-need",
      "evidence": "The document highlights the need to address demographic challenges.",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 6,
      "name": "Logic Chain",
      "slug": "01-logic-chain",
      "bestFor": "Skeptical audiences, controversial recommendations, rigorous analysis",
      "matchId": "13efba04-7803-4da3-8b71-a2f9098ae005",
      "evidence": "The document presents a logical chain of demographic trends and their implications.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Understand the demographic trends and their implications.",
      "structure": "Premise 1 (Accepted truth) -> Premise 2 (Observed fact) -> Therefore... (Inevitable conclusion)",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Build an airtight chain of logic where each premise leads inevitably to the conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}