{ "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b63a-19ec7aef7aa5", "docSlug": "51b4e76e02ce47a2", "documentTitle": "21st CEO Survey", "authorId": "PwC", "authorName": "PwC", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.776, "pageNumber": 7, "pageCount": 32, "prevPage": 6, "nextPage": 8, "slideType": "key_messages", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide contains a mix of qualitative analysis and quantitative survey findings (e.g., 39%, 53%, 94%, 61%, 59%, 45%, 42%, 33%).", "elementsJson": [ "quote_block", "paragraph" ], "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b63a-19ec7aef7aa5/7", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b63a-19ec7aef7aa5", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b63a-19ec7aef7aa5.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b63a-19ec7aef7aa5#slide-7", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Now that President Trump can claim victory on tax reform, we expect that the US economy will continue to grow, in the short term at least.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-d9f4-73c3-b03c-3f8c944f04ff", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "CEO confidence: 53%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-d9f4-73c3-b03c-47f4e9b76e43", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.23, "x": 0.512, "y": 0.315 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Indeed, beyond North American shores, CEOs’ optimism is more tempered, specifically regarding their own organisation’s revenue growth prospects beyond 2018. With respect to the next 12 months, CEOs remain confident; in fact, the percentage of ‘very confident’ responses overall climbs. But the record jump in positivity with regard to global economic growth does not translate into an equivalent leap in confidence in their own 12-month prospects. Regionally, it’s a mixed bag (see Exhibit 3), with North America, Latin America, Central & Eastern Europe, and Asia-Pacific reporting higher levels of ‘very confident’, and the rest of the world moving in the opposite direction. Still, North America is the only region where a majority of CEOs demonstrate the highest possible level of confidence in their company’s revenue growth prospects over the next 12 months.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "48e02ad6-86f3-45fa-97ff-b7709bbdfef2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.23, "x": 0.275, "y": 0.315 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Others are not so sanguine and see signs of irrational exuberance. Noted economic historian Carlota Perez asks, “Is this a real recovery or just a short-term blip? Historically, when there is a real transition into prosperity, everybody feels it. I hope leaders don’t believe this recovery is permanent. It is just a little breathing space before difficult times return. For a lasting recovery, we need a more comprehensive, broader-based, more deliberate change of context.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "67815e3d-f38c-4d8e-805e-cd221ca483c1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.23, "x": 0.75, "y": 0.315 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This divide is quite striking. While the rest of the world is cautiously optimistic, North American CEOs have never been more sure of their companies’ near-term prospects. Just last year, only 39% reported that they were ‘very confident’; that figure jumps to 53% this year (see Exhibit 3). The last time North American CEOs were this exuberant was in 2007, the year before the global financial crisis. When asked what will drive that growth, virtually all North American CEOs point to organic growth (94%), followed by new M&A (61%) and cost reduction (59%). Of note is North American CEOs’ reliance on mergers and acquisitions as compared with the rest of the world – 61% cited it as a growth driver, as compared with the next highest region, Western Europe at 45%, and a global average of 42%. When we look at the geographic markets CEOs are turning to for growth, again, North America, specifically the United States, tops the chart; 46% of global CEOs consider it one of the three most important countries for growth, followed by China at 33% (see ‘US Widens the Gap with China’). Germany strengthens its hold on third place, with one in five CEOs considering it an important growth market. With the full impact of the Brexit vote still an open question, the UK is in a holding pattern at #4. And India bumps Japan as the fifth most attractive market in 2018. Russia regains its place in the top 10, and Canada basically switches places with Mexico (see Exhibit 4).", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "911b37f1-b52e-490f-9e6f-2ecbd5339a3b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.23, "x": 0.037, "y": 0.315 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For some, this burst of optimism is itself reason for continued optimism and is grounded in a sound rationale. As part of this year’s survey, we asked leading economists and business thought leaders to comment on the survey findings. Glenn Hubbard, economist and dean of Columbia Business School, observes: “We are in a cyclical recovery that has been going on for many years since the financial crisis. People have gotten more optimistic. I think in most parts of the world, CEOs believe that changes in policy are going to continue to improve growth.”", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b7a92306-b910-4042-a501-f3e7117c00e5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.23, "w": 0.615, "x": 0.385, "y": 0.085 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now that President Trump can claim victory on tax reform, we expect that the US economy will continue to grow, in the short term at least. However, the next billion consumers are not going to come from North America or Western Europe, but from the rest of the world. Furthermore, the real competition for Western-based multinationals is increasingly coming from local “piranha” companies in these markets as they develop ever stronger and more sophisticated marketing and technology skills (especially in China).", "attrs": null, "subkind": "pull-quote", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "34f35d0e-da34-4380-bd93-e0d63dcc431d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now that President Trump can claim victory on tax reform, we expect that the US economy will continue to grow, in the short term at least. However, the next billion consumers are not going to come from North America or Western Europe, but from the rest of the world. — Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Authority citation", "toolSlug": "authority-citation", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-d9f4-73c3-b03c-40eb766d6d46", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Authority Bias", "slug": "authority-bias", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019de95e-b194-764b-b66e-c1f5ef72f816", "evidence": "Named expert opinion frames the data", "confidence": 80 }, { "name": "Credibility Transfer", "slug": "credibility-transfer", "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019de95e-b172-7639-9aa6-5b4cdacf133a", "evidence": "Pull quote from Sir Martin Sorrell lends authority", "confidence": 85 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 25, "from": 3, "beatId": "019de95e-ad42-7379-b7b7-49a5071099e3", "arcName": "The Triple Take", "arcSlug": "triple-take", "beatName": "The Facts (What)", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Three data chapters: growth (p.3-12), threats (p.13-17), prosperity (p.18-25)", "position": 1, "confidence": 65, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null }, { "to": 12, "from": 4, "beatId": "019de95e-ade9-7322-99c0-2778b5e21e79", "arcName": "The Mountain", "arcSlug": "mountain", "beatName": "Rising Action", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Record optimism and US-led growth data build positive arc", "position": 2, "confidence": 50, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [ { "to": 7, "from": 3, "name": "Pattern Hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "matchId": "019de95e-ae4e-77d9-b24c-08ca40347421", "evidence": "Multiple data points (global trend, regional bars, slope) all confirm the same optimism pattern", "position": 1, "objective": "Establish that CEO optimism is at a record high across regions", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "confidence": 75, "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }