{
  "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16",
  "docSlug": "3183b7c9fa9e2664",
  "documentTitle": "Private Credits Next Act",
  "authorId": "OliverWyman",
  "authorName": "Oliver Wyman",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.752,
  "pageNumber": 8,
  "pageCount": 18,
  "prevPage": 7,
  "nextPage": 9,
  "slideType": "market_sizing",
  "function": "size_opportunity",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 8,
  "notes": "Includes a donut chart breaking down the $5.5T market and a sub-segmentation of the non-bank portion.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "donut_chart",
    "pie_chart",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16/8",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16#slide-8",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Of the roughly $5.5 trillion US specialty finance market, we estimate that non-banks finance around one-third.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e1-758c991a1d5f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.22,
        "w": 0.33,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.46
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Donut chart showing $5.5 trillion market split into 54%, 34%, and 12% segments.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "donut",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1aea02bd-af5f-4bac-97fc-b43f7d084c13",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.18,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.48,
        "y": 0.48
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Sub-donut chart showing $1.9 trillion non-bank segment split into $1.9T total and $200-300B private credit.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "donut",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "71f829a7-3e7d-4771-81c3-f38171d256e5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.82,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.73
      },
      "kind": "disclaimer",
      "text": "Source: Oliver Wyman analysis and estimates, aggregated from a range of sources including, but not limited to: Federal Reserve Board (Z1 tables, G19, G20 and H8); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS); Dealogic; ©2024 Conning, Inc., Conning Esoteric ABS Strategy Fact Sheet — used with permission; Finsight.com; Structured Finance Association; Boeing (Commercial Aircraft Finance Market Outlook); Secured Finance Network; Equipment Leasing and Finance Association; Morgan Stanley Research; CACIB Research; company reports and disclosures",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "473824a7-7bfa-4327-88d6-4b23a53f237a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.45,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.69
      },
      "kind": "legend",
      "text": "Estimated source of finance: Non-bank financing, Publicly securitized, Bank balance sheet, Private credit",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "b699d40c-6fe2-4985-962b-92157569ded5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "TAM: $5.5 trillion",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e1-795dd2355073",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.35,
        "w": 0.39,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Other published reports provide limited visibility on (i) how the market size breaks down by asset class and (ii) the proportion of the market financed outside of banks and the public markets. One helpful triangulation point is looking at the 22 publicly listed firms that Morgan Stanley research covers that are active in private credit. These firms oversee approximately $250 billion to asset-based finance, and a further $220 billion to real assets (this includes non-US allocations), though definitions from player to player vary enormously. Another useful data point: One of the major private credit funds puts its global AUM deployed across (largely) asset-based origination platforms at approximately $130 billion. Of course, we could be wrong given the paucity of data.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c3b2cc9b-f0c9-459a-b69b-881162ede457",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Of the roughly $5.5 trillion US specialty finance market, we estimate that non-banks finance around one-third (See Exhibit 5). The makeup of this non-bank segment is also foggy. We estimate that private credit holds $200 to 300 billion of fee-paying AUM in US specialty finance, meaning private credit finances 3% to 5% of the total specialty finance market.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "db366a1e-4e03-4900-937d-ffa8aa704046",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.55,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.43
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Exhibit 5: The US specialty finance market is a $5.5 trillion opportunity",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "4c9899d7-04e2-465d-a7f1-b1f7cd632b5c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.04
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Private Credit's Next Act",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "f87f3691-46fb-4f29-b31a-41c8f5276c8e",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "metricRaw": "TAM",
      "numberRaw": "$5.5 trillion",
      "numberKind": "money",
      "actionTitle": "The US specialty finance market is a $5.5 trillion opportunity",
      "calloutText": "Of the roughly $5.5 trillion US specialty finance market, we estimate that non-banks finance around one-third.",
      "numberScale": "t",
      "numberValue": 5.5,
      "metricFamily": "market_size",
      "numberCurrency": "$"
    }
  ],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 8,
      "from": 6,
      "beatId": "b8335ca2-1ba3-4198-bc50-eb3e5445f2d6",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Solution & Approach",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-solution-approach",
      "evidence": "The deck presents potential solutions for private credit firms",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Turn",
      "parentBeatSlug": "turn"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 3,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "381e3052-a8ab-4083-b392-06945b6a6c9e",
      "evidence": "The deck presents various data points and exhibits to support its arguments",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in private credit market trends",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}