{
  "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16",
  "docSlug": "3183b7c9fa9e2664",
  "documentTitle": "Private Credits Next Act",
  "authorId": "OliverWyman",
  "authorName": "Oliver Wyman",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.752,
  "pageNumber": 4,
  "pageCount": 18,
  "prevPage": 3,
  "nextPage": 5,
  "slideType": "industry_trends",
  "function": "establish_context",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 1,
  "notes": "The chart illustrates the structural shift away from traditional bank lending since the 1980s.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "line_chart",
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16/4",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16#slide-4",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Lending by US regional banks remains anemic, providing opportunities for private credit players to fill the gap.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e0-ff9cec2c8196",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.22,
        "w": 0.82,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.16
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Line chart showing bank share of total outstanding lending volume from 1960 to 2020",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "61c4d61e-b003-4e18-a8a1-15cc7e24b59b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Bank share of total outstanding lending volume",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e1-00205eb09b36",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.45
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Third, financial product innovation is a vital enabler. Money market mutual funds, introduced in the United States in 1971, facilitated disintermediation by letting savers invest in a diverse range of instruments. Today, new private credit structures are giving investors access to assets previously confined to banks' balance sheets such as equipment finance.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "41731760-bb72-4bb2-b635-6d2dad864467",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.45
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "What can we learn from the history of bank disintermediation? First, it typically takes at least two to three years for weakened banks to get over large interest rate shocks. While major banks are back on their skis, regional banks will take longer to get the rates of interest on their assets and liabilities back in balance. Lending by US regional banks remains anemic, providing opportunities for private credit players to fill the gap.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5adb1c40-07c6-47c6-abd4-ea054f79b49a",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.15,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.61
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Fourth, new regulation aimed at addressing banks' vulnerabilities can inadvertently push even more lending elsewhere. While new Fed proposals to increase bank capital (dubbed the \"Basel endgame\") are being recalibrated, further adjustments to liquidity, capital rules, and risk management practices are nonetheless likely.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "982f1e31-aa0d-4056-81b6-5fcea24688d1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.2,
        "w": 0.4,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Secondly, outdated financial regulations often exacerbate such shocks. In the 1970s and 1980s, Regulation Q, which imposed ceilings on interest rates offered to depositors in the United States, exacerbated deposit flight to money market funds. Similarly, the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility triggered deposit flight as the Fed raised rates. Old rules are revised slowly — Reg Q was introduced in 1933 — disadvantaging banks.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "e3930e91-ec2c-4bcd-ab5e-561211ca5f2b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.7,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.39
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Note: Chart shows banks share of total outstanding lending volume to households and non-financial businesses. Source: Federal Reserve Board, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), Oliver Wyman analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "5feb6777-b8e5-4a48-a66a-8c12ef3d456c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Exhibit 2: Banks have a falling share of private lending in the US economy",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8a5d772f-fd69-41e9-8397-e88cdd6a1f86",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Data Story Arc",
      "slug": "data-story-arc",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "d3a5b4db-054f-4a28-aa6a-8e7c73ce138f",
      "evidence": "The slide presents a narrative around data, using a line chart to show the decline in bank lending over time.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 5,
      "from": 1,
      "beatId": "9c495cf2-a2e1-493b-b35f-5f8ee17e1633",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Situation & Context",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-situation-context",
      "evidence": "The deck provides an overview of the private credit market and its trends",
      "position": 0,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    },
    {
      "to": 4,
      "from": 3,
      "beatId": "969fde61-c05e-4281-a398-165d19bc061a",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Problem & Complication",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-problem-complication",
      "evidence": "The deck highlights the challenges faced by private credit firms",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 3,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "381e3052-a8ab-4083-b392-06945b6a6c9e",
      "evidence": "The deck presents various data points and exhibits to support its arguments",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in private credit market trends",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}