{
  "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16",
  "docSlug": "3183b7c9fa9e2664",
  "documentTitle": "Private Credits Next Act",
  "authorId": "OliverWyman",
  "authorName": "Oliver Wyman",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "portrait",
  "aspectRatio": 0.752,
  "pageNumber": 10,
  "pageCount": 18,
  "prevPage": 9,
  "nextPage": 11,
  "slideType": "key_takeaways",
  "function": "summarize",
  "density": "overcrowded",
  "nDataPoints": 3,
  "notes": "The slide discusses the discrepancy between reported private credit AUM ($1.7T) and the authors' estimate ($2.5T-$3T).",
  "elementsJson": [
    "paragraph",
    "footnote"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16/10",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b639-af26e441ba16#slide-10",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Based on our analysis and conversations, we roughly estimate private credit is at least a $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion asset class today.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e2-004f81d436ec",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Private Credit AUM: $2.5 trillion",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-d9ef-7323-a2e2-0657ecf28f16",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.11,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.15
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Far from everyone is all-in on asset-based finance (ABF). The focus is mostly from the top 10 firms... Many are sticking to mid-market and leveraged finance, given that's their expertise.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "104da274-290b-41f3-8acf-cd57325eba16",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.07,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.34
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "So, where are the richest pickings for private credit within specialty finance? Based on our discussions, the following factors may influence which assets are most attractive to private credit firms:",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "23e5b8ed-5a0e-48f9-9b85-8046639b1b84",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.09,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.65
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Going off-piste to new markets is part of the attraction for private credit firms. There is potential for richer spreads, less efficient markets, and the ability to gain an investment edge through research.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "95855149-6612-4e16-bc49-93dcf1ee7df6",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.09,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.55
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Clearly the way each firm defines private credit varies enormously! The thoughtful and well researched recent note by the International Monetary Fund also highlights the asset class likely to materially exceed the best-known estimates.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "a72c88b8-ecce-4289-bc6a-3c80e0b4409f",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.43
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Ease of origination. For some assets, such as credit cards and trade/receivables finance, banks are responsible for a significant share of the origination... We expect to see increased re-tranching... or are selling tranches of risk.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "aae6e855-df0d-4268-8263-d9b628ad1cff",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.09,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "As direct lending has become increasingly competitive, yields in many pockets of asset-based lending look more attractive compared with publicly traded bonds of similar risk.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "d77e3264-4329-401f-ab9c-593ba9aca7bf",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.21,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.29
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "Most players argue that private credit AUM is larger than the often quoted $1.7 trillion AUM estimate. Based on our analysis... we roughly estimate private credit is at least a $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion asset class today.",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "dd1dc3c6-9c98-4cc7-ab7b-fc93939975f2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.55,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.91
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "1 IMF Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024, \"The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks\"",
      "attrs": {
        "numbered": true
      },
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "fa38ce3b-b025-4076-ab16-e2896fe7aacd",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.33,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Key debates from our discussions",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2b2e8295-c77b-4abf-abd9-236529c73f7b",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.38,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.28
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Where next, and why could we be wrong?",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "433b86ad-c9a9-42c1-be40-462beccf6eb5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.02,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.09,
        "y": 0.04
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "Private Credit's Next Act",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "cb5fece2-168e-4dfd-b78c-f2a50e2198c4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "metricRaw": "Private Credit AUM",
      "numberRaw": "$2.5 trillion",
      "numberKind": "money",
      "actionTitle": null,
      "calloutText": "Based on our analysis and conversations, we roughly estimate private credit is at least a $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion asset class today.",
      "numberScale": "t",
      "numberValue": 2.5,
      "metricFamily": "market_size",
      "numberCurrency": "$"
    }
  ],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Storytelling Effect",
      "slug": "storytelling-effect",
      "agent": "Storyteller",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "8285b458-fb0e-4010-9b08-203faf5b1793",
      "evidence": "The slide uses a narrative to convey the key takeaways and create a compelling story.",
      "confidence": 0.5
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 15,
      "from": 3,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "381e3052-a8ab-4083-b392-06945b6a6c9e",
      "evidence": "The deck presents various data points and exhibits to support its arguments",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in private credit market trends",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}