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  "documentTitle": "Global Economics Intelligence Apr 2023",
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      "text": "Russian 2022 GDP slump has been driven by domestic consumption and net trade; late 2022 and early 2023 marked by stagnation; 2023 outlook depends on government support and trade.",
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      "text": "GDP growth: -2.1%",
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      "text": "Russian 2022 GDP slump has been driven by domestic consumption and net trade; late 2022 and early 2023 marked by stagnation; 2023 outlook depends on government support and trade, as domestic demand remains weak; inflation fell sharply below 4% on an annual basis.",
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      "text": "Preliminary balance-of-payments figures show that the value of Russia's exports in Q1 2023 fell by 35% y-o-y, driven by a decline in commodity prices and lower volumes related to sanctions and Russia's decision to reduce its gas exports. The value of Russia's imports in Q1 2023 was down 3% y-o-y but grew compared to the previous quarter. The recovery observed after last spring's collapse likely reflects higher import prices due to global inflation. As a result, Russia's current account surplus declined to $20bn from $70bn last year. The early evidence suggests that the overall volume of Russian oil exports in January–February was broadly unchanged from the 2022 monthly average, thanks to a shift of export flows to Asia and Africa.",
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      "text": "The data also show that Q4 confirmed full-year trends. GDP growth was the same as in Q3, at 0.5% quarter on quarter. Household spending slowed to 1.8% in Q4 from 2.5% in Q3, likely due to weak sentiment and uncertainty. Fixed investment growth picked up to 0.8% in Q4 from 0.6% in Q3; government consumption growth climbed to 1.7% from 0.6% in Q3.",
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      "text": "January–February data confirm stagnation. In February, the estimated annual GDP contraction improved slightly to –3.1% from –3.2% in January. In the first two months of 2023, industrial output shrank by 2% on an annual basis, while retail sales volume contracted by 7.2%. Even the low-base effect did not help consumer activity recover, indicating that household demand remains depressed.",
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      "text": "Detailed 2022 GDP data confirm that Russian GDP declined by 2.1%, with household consumption and net trade weighing on growth. However, fixed investments and government spending helped avoid a deeper slump. The negative contribution from net trade came as a surprise, given the perceived resilience of commodity exports. Also, the quarterly profile is hard to square with the timing of Western sanctions targeting Russia's commodity exports and Russia's own actions. The data show real exports cratered in Q2 2022, not in H2 when the cuts in Gazprom's exports were deepest.",
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      "text": "CPI inflation in March fell sharply to 3.5% from double-digit numbers—this stems from base effects, as the March 2022 jump dropped off calculations. Consumer price growth slowed to 0.4% m-o-m from 0.5% the prior month, with core inflation up only 0.1% m-o-m.",
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      "text": "Unemployment fell to 3.5% in February from 3.6% in January. The labor market tightened due to adverse demographic trends exacerbated by emigration, with the labor supply also influenced by changing migration patterns as immigration from other CIS countries stalled. Estimates suggest 500,000–800,000 Russians left the country after the invasion. Despite the recession, growth in nominal wages has remained brisk. In January, nominal wages were up by 12.4% y-o-y, while the average real wage rose by 0.6%.",
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      "text": "Source: BOFIT; IHS Markit; Oxford Economics",
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