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  "documentTitle": "Global Economics Intelligence Apr 2023",
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      "text": "The UK is one of only two G7 countries predicted by the IMF to contract in 2023.",
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      "text": "Inflation decreased by less than expected in March, to 10.1%. The labor market remains tight but shows signs of easing. Spring forecasts estimate a mild recession in 2023, followed by a moderate rebound in 2024.",
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      "text": "UK inflation decreased by less than expected in March, remaining in double figures. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell to 10.1% in March (10.4% in February), resuming a downward trajectory after it rose unexpectedly in February.",
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      "text": "According to the IMF's April 2023 forecasts, the near-term economic downturn is set to be shorter and shallower than previously forecast, and medium-term output to be higher. Output is expected to decline by 0.3% in 2023 and grow by 1% and 2.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.",
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      "text": "Growth in average total pay was 5.9% in December 2022 to February 2023, but real total pay declined by 3% year-on-year. The unemployment rate for December 2022 to February 2023 rose slightly on the previous quarter to 3.8%.",
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      "text": "The UK manufacturing sector fell back into contraction territory in March, as output declined following a slight increase in February. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing fell to 47.9 in March, down from February's seven-month high of 49.3.",
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      "text": "The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey has played down the risks of a system-wide banking crisis... Humza Yousaf has replaced Nicola Sturgeon as leader of the pro-independence Scottish National Party... the upcoming coronation of King Charles III is expected to be more modest.",
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      "text": "Meanwhile, business activity in the UK services sector continued to gather momentum... The services PMI registered 52.9 in February, down from 53.5 in February, but above the 50.0 mark for the second consecutive month.",
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      "text": "Source: Bank of England; IMF; OECD; Office for Budget Responsibility; Office for National Statistics; McKinsey's Global Economics Intelligence analysis",
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