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  "documentTitle": "MTA Financial Impact COVID-19",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a causal-chain logic to explain the methodology behind ridership forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic.",
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      "text": "Although different assets may behave differently, e.g., commuter rail may have a slower ramp-up than bus given that commuter rail riders could be more likely to work from home for longer or to use a personal vehicle, some early sensitivity testing was conducted and showed that additional precision from a bottom-up build did not meaningfully impact the aggregate number",
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      "text": "(4/28/20) Please see disclaimer on page 3. These analyses represent only potential scenarios based on discrete data from one point in time. They are not intended as a prediction or forecast, and the situation is changing daily.",
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      "text": "Used actuals provided by the MTA and compared across systems to calibrate. Ridership for most systems is down dramatically (~90%).\nLooked at historical experience for what “new normal” looks like in an economic crisis. Began with ridership and toll recovery from the trough during the Great Recession, then took an additional haircut to reflect a number of factors that could continue to suppress demand (e.g., increased prevalence of work from home)\nLooked at ramp-up curves in health/safety/security crises (e.g., 9/11, SARS) as well as economic crises (e.g., Great Recession) to understand how demand has reacted to past crises, and shaped a potential curve for a dual health/safety and economic crisis\nModeled two scenarios of potential interruption by a resurgence, one where a second wave would result in something similar to present-day physical distancing conditions (in addition to seasonal flu), and a second more positive scenario factoring in the impact of better preparedness which would reduce the trough as currently experienced",
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      "text": "1. What is current ridership during intense social distancing (e.g., the current period)?\n2. What level of ridership are we going to, i.e., what's the 'new normal' level in a period of economic decline/social distancing?\n3. What will the ramp up be like to get from point 1 to point 2, and when will it start?\n4. How will this ramp up be interrupted by a potential resurgence of the virus in Q4 2020?",
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