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  "documentTitle": "Lebanon Economic Vision",
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  "notes": "The slide uses a structured list format with numbered points (A1-A6) to categorize findings into 'Public debt' and 'Debt structure'.",
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      "text": "However, if Lebanon retains the same trajectory, then by 2030, Debt to GDP ratio would reach ~200% and expenditures excluding interest would exceed government revenues.",
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      "text": "A4: Today, 62% of Lebanon's debt is in local currency, reducing risk of government default but putting additional pressure on the L.L. Today 62% of the total public debt is in local currency giving the government negotiation power with bond holders; moreover, ~84% of the public debt is held locally reducing exposure to foreign markets.",
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      "text": "A3: Debt to GDP ratio began to increase again post 2011, once the economy entered a recession. Low GDP growth translated into a stagnation of government revenues growing at ~1%; the stagnation was accentuated by the removal of fuel taxes that occurred during the period of economic growth. Government expenditures on the other hand sustained a ~5% growth despite a decrease in oil prices and lower EDL deficits. Government's primary surplus decreased to reach ~0% in 2016; adjusting to pre-2014 oil prices leads to a primary budget deficit of -2%.",
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      "text": "A5: Local currency debt is concentrated in short-term obligations whereas foreign currency debt is long-term. Local debt is concentrated in short-term securities with an ATM of 3.84 years and 72% securities less than 7 years tenor. Foreign currency debt is concentrated in long term Eurobonds with 54% having ATM more than 5 years.",
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      "text": "A1: Lebanon currently has the third highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the world standing at ~145% (in 2016). The aggregate outstanding debt of 75 USD Bn and debt to GDP ratio of 145% (in 2016) were reached through cumulative fiscal deficits over the last 10 years. Less than 5 USD Bn of the total accumulated debt has been used to cover primary budget deficit, while the rest is the result of interest accumulation.",
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      "text": "A2: Historically, the debt to GDP ratio has been decreasing from 2006 and 2011, driven by a strong economic outlook and strong growth in GDP, driving a growth in government revenues. From 2004 to 2011, the government was operating at primary surplus of ~3-4% GDP; Debt to GDP ratio decreased from its highest level of 183% in 2006 to 131% in 2012. The primary surplus was also growing at ~23% p.a, mainly driven a ~13% yearly growth in government revenues.",
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      "text": "A6: However, if Lebanon retains the same trajectory, then by 2030, Debt to GDP ratio would reach ~200% and expenditures excluding interest would exceed government revenues. Assuming constant oil prices, with other expenditures as well as revenues growing at historical rate, fiscal deficit is expected to reach ~15% of GDP for an outstanding debt of ~200 USD Bn. With nominal GDP growing at ~5% IMF projections, debt to GDP ratio is expected to hit ~200% by 2030.",
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      "text": "A. Key performance measures",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Standard & Poor's; Ministry of Finance; CAS; Country's IMF article IV; IMF World Economic Outlook April 2018; Banque du Liban; Banks annual reports",
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