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  "documentTitle": "Global Economics Intelligence June 2023",
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      "text": "GDP grew slightly in Q1 2023, but activity remains below 2022 levels; disposable household income is unchanged from Q1 2022; stagnation expected for full 2023; fiscal stance and current account remain under pressure.",
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      "text": "GDP growth: 0.7%",
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      "text": "Consumer prices rose by 9 % y-o-y in the first quarter. Since March, headline inflation has been running well below the 4% target, and inflationary expectations have dropped, but remain in double-digit territory.",
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      "text": "The economic stimulus saw government spending soar by 22% y-o-y in Q1, while revenues were down by roughly the same percentage, driven by lower commodity receipts. As a result, the government's projected budget deficit target of 2% of GDP for the entire year has already been eclipsed in the first four months of 2023.",
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      "text": "Preliminary estimates suggest Russian GDP grew by 0.7% q-o-q during the first quarter of 2023 but remained -2.6% below Q1 2022. The annual rate of contraction was slowed by a stabilizing economy but from an already-weak base in March 2023.",
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      "text": "The consensus forecast from May expects GDP to contract by -0.3 % this year. On June 7, the OECD released its forecast, which expects Russian GDP to contract by 1.5 % this year, while the World Bank's outlook from June 6 assumes a fall of -0.2 %. The economy is set to be affected by weak household consumption, shrinking exports, political uncertainty, and sanctions. Government spending will continue to drive most of the growth.",
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      "text": "Performance differed between sectors. Private consumption shrank: retail sales contracted -7% y-o-y. Real disposable household income in Q1 recovered to the level seen in the first quarter of 2022. The decline in real incomes, recorded through the whole of 2023, has been mitigated recently by slowing inflation and strong wage growth. Pressures to increase wages continue due to a tight labor market. Russia's unemployment rate hit a post-Soviet low of 3.5 % in the first quarter. Fixed investment and manufacturing (+1% y-o-y in Q1) recovered on the back of government fiscal support.",
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      "text": "GDP grew slightly in Q1 2023, but activity remains below 2022 levels; disposable household income is unchanged from Q1 2022; stagnation expected for full 2023; fiscal stance and current account remain under pressure; signs of improvement in short-term data from April.",
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      "text": "Short-term April data suggest some improvement in retail sales which reached pre-invasion levels. Real wages have continued to rise, and the unemployment rate has hit 3.3%. Also, manufacturing showed some signs of recovery in April, with volumes only about 1% below pre-war levels.",
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      "text": "Russia's current account surplus, which last year spiked to historical highs, has fallen sharply in recent months. Preliminary estimates from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) show that the current account surplus for the first four months of this year was around $23 billion, a 77% decline from the year-ago period. The current account surplus has evaporated with the declining value of exports, caused by a drop in oil prices and exported gas volumes. At the same time, imports revived as the value of goods imports in March was down by about -8% from pre-invasion levels.",
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      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: BOFIT; IHS Markit; Oxford Economics",
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