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  "documentTitle": "Global Economics Intelligence (August 2023)",
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  "notes": "The slide provides a comprehensive overview of US economic performance, including equity markets, inflation, labor market, trade, industrial production, housing, and recent policy/disaster impacts.",
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      "text": "Consumer confidence index: 117.0",
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      "text": "The industrial production index Increased slightly in July to 102.9 (June 102). The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 49 in July (46.3 in June), while the services PMI decreased again, to 52.3 (54.4 in June).",
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      "text": "In the housing market, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached the record figure of 7.09% on August 17, this as the US National housing price index decreased by 0.5% past May. In July, housing starts increased to 1,452,000 (1,434,000 in June), with completions down to 1,321,000 this month (1,434,000 in June).",
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      "text": "Consumer price index (CPI) increased to 3.2% (annualized) in July (3.0% in June), while core inflation ticked down to 4.7% (annualized) in July (4.8% in June). The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, accounting for over 90% of the increase, with the index for motor vehicle insurance also contributing. The July 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the NY Fed shows that the one-year-ahead inflation expectation declined for the fourth consecutive month to 3.5% at the short-term horizon, its lowest reading since April 2021.",
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      "text": "July closed with a strong equity market and consumer confidence at its highest level since July 2021; inflation edged 3% and the labor market remained strong with the unemployment rate below 4%",
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      "text": "The unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%, slightly lower than June's 3.6% (3.5% in January 2020). Total nonfarm payroll employment has added some 187,000 net new jobs in July. New unemployment claims have returned to pre-pandemic levels, at around 248,000 new claims per week. The labor force is up by approximately 1,576,000 compared with March 2020 (995,000 men, 581,000 women).",
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      "text": "In July, year-to-date returns for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones were up to 19.5% and 8.3% respectively. During this month, the CBOE Volatility Index averaged 13.9, signaling a stable financial market.",
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      "text": "According to The Pacific Disaster Center and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) damage assessment, it will take an estimated $5.5 billion to rebuild the areas in Maui devastated by multiple wildfires, described by Governor Josh Green as the \"worst natural disaster that Hawaii ever faced.\" FEMA also estimates $7.0 billion to $9.0 billion in total damage and economic loss from Hurricane Hilary which affected the West Coast.",
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      "text": "Retail and food-service sales increased to $696.4 billion, a 0.7% increase from June's $691 billion. The consumer confidence index (Conference Board) rose again in July to 117.0, up from 110.1 in June, to stand at its highest level since July 2021.",
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      "text": "US investors await the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September with expectations of no new interest rate hikes—this as the CPI has presented encouraging figures recently, while hirings have also moderated. The current rate remains in the range 5.25–5.5%.",
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      "text": "US exports in June were $247.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than May's exports; meanwhile, June's imports fell to $313.0 billion, $3.1 billion down on May. Accordingly, the total deficit decreased by 4.1% to $65.5 billion.",
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      "text": "President Biden signed an executive order that will prohibit some new US investment in China across three sectors: semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and certain artificial intelligence systems. The measure targets private equity, venture capital, joint ventures, and greenfield investments.",
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