{ "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-f35ef4572dde", "docSlug": "8f5a474934f3e2ec", "documentTitle": "World recalibrating 2026 FDI", "authorId": "Kearney", "authorName": "Kearney", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.678, "pageNumber": 5, "pageCount": 31, "prevPage": 4, "nextPage": 6, "slideType": "executive_summary", "function": "summarize", "density": "dense", "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "The slide provides a high-level overview of the report's findings, contrasting general optimism with regional geopolitical risks.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-f35ef4572dde/5", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-f35ef4572dde", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-f35ef4572dde.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-f35ef4572dde#slide-5", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.63 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Despite growing uncertainties, 88 percent of investors indicate plans to increase their FDI in the next three years.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2b1a7984-1f67-4d3a-9538-a78474c76adb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Investor FDI intent: 88%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-c7c9-7288-bbbf-a5725dcf25b6", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.5, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Yet the onset of conflict in the Middle East since our survey was in the field has likely rattled foreign investors. As of March 2026, Oxford Economics has downgraded growth projections for 2026 to just 2.6 percent, and uncertainty remains high. The Middle East is expected to be much more deeply affected. The United Arab Emirates could see a substantial near-term economic hit, particularly via tourism and aviation, but this could rebound quickly if regional conflict stabilizes. Saudi Arabia is projected to be comparatively less affected, as it can divert some oil exports via alternative pipelines and benefits from continued public sector-led investment that supports domestic activity. The ultimate impact of these events on inbound FDI to the region will depend on the scope, scale, and duration of these hostilities.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e8f8242b-132e-4f7d-974b-bd0724f615e4", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.22 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Undercurrents of geopolitical, social, and economic instability were swirling below what, on paper, looked like a relatively stable global economic outlook at the start of the year. As of early February 2026, Oxford Economics projected 3.0 percent global growth for 2026 and average growth of 2.9 percent over the next three years. This unspectacular, albeit steady, outlook is perhaps why 70 percent of survey respondents had a marginally more optimistic view of the global economy than a year ago, up 2 percent from 2025. And despite concerns about rising geopolitical risk and growing uncertainties associated with competing industrial policies, 88 percent of investors indicated plans to increase their FDI in the next three years, representing a four-point increase from last year. As the following results suggest, this optimism was likely grounded in enthusiasm about upcoming opportunities in R&D and AI in the usual “safe bet” markets, as well as interest in fast-growing middle powers in Asia and beyond.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ee3e13e1-9dc1-41e2-9835-54e6fdd69a1b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "The 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e5496eaa-5712-4225-b177-d141e520ecbd", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [ { "metricRaw": "Investor FDI intent", "numberRaw": "88%", "numberKind": "percent", "actionTitle": null, "calloutText": "Despite growing uncertainties, 88 percent of investors indicate plans to increase their FDI in the next three years.", "numberScale": null, "numberValue": 88, "metricFamily": "other", "numberCurrency": null } ], "tools": [ { "name": "Inductive Reasoning", "slug": "inductive-reasoning", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "loop", "matchId": "019de7d0-dee2-7427-9c86-9e0696f14ab2", "evidence": "Loop 1 stacks evidence points to infer the global FDI pattern.", "confidence": 75 }, { "name": "Action Titles", "slug": "action-titles", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019de7d0-df04-7799-97ba-872a0d2894aa", "evidence": "Callout: '88 percent of investors plan to increase FDI'.", "confidence": 75 }, { "name": "Annotation", "slug": "annotation", "agent": "Designer", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019de7d0-df25-77ad-bc31-7df028dbdc84", "evidence": "Highlighted 88% metric anchors the slide's claim.", "confidence": 65 }, { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive-summary", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "1cf85362-49b2-49b9-bcc2-06f13aa96c6a", "evidence": "The slide is titled 'The 2026 Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index' and has a type of 'executive_summary'.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 18, "from": 5, "beatId": "019de7d0-d9e8-74ce-98ca-d89b5208cb3d", "arcName": "The Triple Take", "arcSlug": "triple-take", "beatName": "The Facts (What)", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Rankings, bump charts, heatmaps and driver bars present the quantitative findings.", "position": 1, "confidence": 85, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null }, { "to": 9, "from": 5, "beatId": "019de7d0-dac6-72e9-9fe8-da2040919976", "arcName": "The Onion", "arcSlug": "onion", "beatName": "Surface Observation", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "Top-25 ranking and basic driver heatmap (pp.7-9).", "position": 1, "confidence": 55, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "loops": [ { "to": 9, "from": 5, "name": "Pattern Hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "matchId": "019de7d0-dbab-777e-ae16-0285f60efb79", "evidence": "Stacks evidence (88% intent, top-25 ranking, bump chart, driver heatmap) toward the developed-market-concentration pattern.", "position": 1, "objective": "Establish where global capital is flowing in 2026", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "confidence": 80, "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }