{ "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-1e456d0cacd9", "docSlug": "3cb9f4c65aa18c22", "documentTitle": "Parthenon Profit Warnings Q3", "authorId": "EY", "authorName": "EY-Parthenon", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.414, "pageNumber": 10, "pageCount": 15, "prevPage": 9, "nextPage": 11, "slideType": "industry_trends", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide provides a qualitative and quantitative overview of the travel and leisure industry's current economic challenges.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "photo" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-1e456d0cacd9/10", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-1e456d0cacd9", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-1e456d0cacd9.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b637-1e456d0cacd9#slide-10", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Our Q3 2025 profit warning data highlights a sharp shift in consumer sentiment.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-c23d-70a9-9e94-d3e3e0855096", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.52, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "image", "text": null, "attrs": null, "subkind": "photo", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b1ee7b83-4d16-4e45-8d1f-488944c539ff", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "profit warnings: 19%", "attrs": null, "subkind": "primary", "toolName": "Quantification", "toolSlug": "quantification", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-c23d-70a9-9e94-d4a8663f52a2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The sector has weathered volatile consumer confidence before, with spending on meals out and holidays typically resilient during downturns. Discretionary spending continues to hold up – but Barclays reported a rise of just 0.2% in September. Meanwhile, rising price sensitivity is becoming a growing challenge amid intensifying cost pressures. Hospitality faces an estimated £3.4 billion in added annual costs, driven by increases in National Insurance, the National Living Wage, business rates, and food and beverage inflation. These pressures are catching up with operators, particularly those with less flexible models or limited pricing power.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2868bdae-2e59-409b-b4a0-d4cc85c73335", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Is the sector's resilience crumbling? Whilst retailers have faced sustained pressure from weaker consumer confidence and finances, travel and leisure companies have felt the benefit of consumers' pent-up demand for experiences. Profit warnings are still relatively few, but there are signs that the tide is turning. Our Q3 2025 profit warning data highlights a sharp shift in consumer sentiment. Nineteen percent of warnings cited the impact of weaker confidence – up from just 6% a year ago and the highest level since 2022 when a spike in inflation severely dented disposable incomes. This trend aligns with the GfK Consumer Confidence Index, which fell to -19 in September, as economic and Budget concerns weighed on sentiment.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "358342cf-3d72-4e33-a875-c42f76c17c64", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Operators with strong branding, adaptable formats, and clear value propositions are better positioned to absorb mounting pressures. As consumers become more selective, authenticity and value increasingly drive choice. Innovation – from small plates and wellness concepts to tech-enabled service models – is helping some operators stay ahead. However, casual dining continues to struggle with market saturation, rising costs, and declining footfall. Many are responding by trimming menus, reducing hours, or shifting toward quick-service formats, although this isn't always effective for family-focused venues where discretionary spend is more vulnerable to price sensitivity.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "9bb33fca-087a-4fa5-819a-06fe06893806", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Pubs are proving more resilient, but managed hospitality groups are generally finding it challenging to deliver like-for-like sales growth in an increasingly competitive and price-sensitive environment. Travel is also showing signs of feeling the strain of rising costs and changing consumer behaviour. Late and irregular booking patterns are creating challenges around demand and liquidity planning across the airline and holiday sector. Meanwhile, cautious US travellers faced with dollar weakness are travelling less to the UK, softening hotel demand in London in particular, where hoteliers are struggling to maintain the room rate increases achieved in the post Covid period. Budget chains that thrived post-pandemic are also contending with softer demand, aggravating their operating costs challenges. In a more costly and unpredictable environment, the ability to increase adaptability, innovate, and deliver value will play a big part in helping companies to thrive.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a0b5fccf-2d87-4fb0-bb0c-8f243ae58d25", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "title", "text": "FTSE Travel and Leisure", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "08c2ecfc-56ba-47f7-9bad-56ba8a03f549", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Sectors to watch", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f8d8386d-b0bd-46b7-a96a-a266f5e6ebbe", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [ { "metricRaw": "profit warnings", "numberRaw": "19%", "numberKind": "percent", "actionTitle": null, "calloutText": "Our Q3 2025 profit warning data highlights a sharp shift in consumer sentiment.", "numberScale": null, "numberValue": 19, "metricFamily": "margin_return", "numberCurrency": null } ], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 12, "from": 9, "beatId": "b4414f28-a75e-442e-955b-5f4c3e3e732c", "arcName": "Monroe's Motivated Sequence", "arcSlug": "monroes-sequence", "beatName": "Satisfaction", "beatSlug": "monroes-sequence-satisfaction", "evidence": "The key messages and sectors to watch slides provide insights and recommendations for building resilience.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Turn", "parentBeatSlug": "turn" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }