{
  "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-b4f6703d5f80",
  "docSlug": "b87718276d2e8ef8",
  "documentTitle": "US Mail Volumes to 2020",
  "authorId": "BCG",
  "authorName": "BCG",
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": "landscape",
  "aspectRatio": 1.294,
  "pageNumber": 9,
  "pageCount": 41,
  "prevPage": 8,
  "nextPage": 10,
  "slideType": "impact_sizing",
  "function": "quantify_impact",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 15,
  "notes": "The chart uses a BCG-branded background. It highlights a -1.5% annual decline rate.",
  "elementsJson": [
    "headline_text",
    "line_chart",
    "callout_box"
  ],
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-b4f6703d5f80/9",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-b4f6703d5f80",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-b4f6703d5f80.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-b4f6703d5f80#slide-9",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.22,
        "x": 0.475,
        "y": 0.445
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "-1.5% annual decline",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c961092d-67cd-47a6-a75f-7451443a2633",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "2020 projection represents 30% decline off of 2006 peak",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": "Visual emphasis",
      "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-acbb-7389-93b4-e93d1c3a4951",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.55,
        "w": 0.82,
        "x": 0.12,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Line chart showing volume decline from 2000 to 2020",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "line",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "326c22a0-e13c-42be-8fa3-7110a9b571d1",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": null,
      "kind": "metric",
      "text": "Mail volume (billions of pieces): 15%",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": "Quantification",
      "toolSlug": "quantification",
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "019dd951-acbb-7389-93b4-ecea10403f09",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.6,
        "x": 0.2,
        "y": 0.8
      },
      "kind": "paragraph",
      "text": "2020 projection represents 30% decline off of 2006 peak",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "paragraph",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "7e458c6e-2f52-4a10-a486-06815b7d5f65",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.06,
        "y": 0.88
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "1. Sender view Source: BCG analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": null,
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "da63528a-8039-457f-af0f-e8c981195152",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.11,
        "w": 0.88,
        "x": 0.06,
        "y": 0.11
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "We project a volume decline of at least 15% by 2020 vs. 2009",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "1c49aa3d-b673-42ee-97f1-6f2896d77fc5",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "metricRaw": "Mail volume (billions of pieces)",
      "numberRaw": "15%",
      "numberKind": "percent",
      "actionTitle": "We project a volume decline of at least 15% by 2020 vs. 2009",
      "calloutText": "2020 projection represents 30% decline off of 2006 peak",
      "numberScale": null,
      "numberValue": 15,
      "metricFamily": "other",
      "numberCurrency": null
    }
  ],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Action Titles",
      "slug": "action-titles",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a06-3b15b7338a79",
      "evidence": "Title: 'We project a volume decline of at least 15% by 2020 vs. 2009'",
      "confidence": 92
    },
    {
      "name": "Annotation",
      "slug": "annotation",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a06-3c58c3dfb0b0",
      "evidence": "Yellow oval callout '-1.5% annual decline' and white box '30% decline off 2006 peak'",
      "confidence": 92
    },
    {
      "name": "Chart Selection Guide",
      "slug": "chart-selection-guide",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a06-4182fa2bb05a",
      "evidence": "Line chart appropriate for time-series 2000-2020",
      "confidence": 85
    },
    {
      "name": "Chart Selection Guide",
      "slug": "chart-selection-guide",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "be542aa8-fc27-4a69-8bec-46433410f292",
      "evidence": "chart/line: Line chart showing volume decline from 2000 to 2020",
      "confidence": 0.5
    },
    {
      "name": "So What? Test",
      "slug": "so-what-test",
      "agent": "Architect",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a06-4a4997da9780",
      "evidence": "Title answers 'so what' by quantifying decline magnitude",
      "confidence": 75
    },
    {
      "name": "Visual Hierarchy",
      "slug": "visual-hierarchy",
      "agent": "Designer",
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-163f-72bd-8a06-4410de2d7030",
      "evidence": "Three labeled scenarios (Sender/Consumer/Worst-case) with clear typography",
      "confidence": 78
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 7,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0702-74a3-87e3-6afd52629570",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Problem & Complication",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-problem-complication",
      "evidence": "Results section: -15% volume decline projection across segments, sender quotes",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 88,
      "parentBeatName": "Complication",
      "parentBeatSlug": "complication"
    },
    {
      "to": 17,
      "from": 7,
      "beatId": "019dd95a-0702-74a3-87e3-793f9f86b6f5",
      "arcName": "The Triple Take",
      "arcSlug": "triple-take",
      "beatName": "The Facts (What)",
      "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-facts-what",
      "evidence": "Results forecasts and peer benchmarks present the data",
      "position": 1,
      "confidence": 72,
      "parentBeatName": "Setup",
      "parentBeatSlug": "setup"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 14,
      "from": 8,
      "name": "So What Cascade",
      "slug": "41-so-what-cascade",
      "bestFor": "Data presentations, executive summaries, driving to recommendations",
      "matchId": "019dd95a-088c-724c-b30f-860f111cd060",
      "evidence": "p9 reveals -15% headline; p10-13 cascade drivers and segments; p14 closes with sender quote",
      "position": 2,
      "objective": "Cascade from aggregate decline to segment-level evidence and sender voice",
      "structure": "The Data -> So What? (Insight 1) -> So What? (Insight 2) -> So What? (The Action)",
      "confidence": 78,
      "description": "Chain insights together, each answering 'so what?' until you reach the actionable conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}