{ "docId": "019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-33718c0bb3d5", "docSlug": "6cfacd78cbd42db5", "documentTitle": "Technology Foresight", "authorId": "ArthurDLittle", "authorName": "Arthur D. Little", "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting", "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.707, "pageNumber": 6, "pageCount": 8, "prevPage": 5, "nextPage": 7, "slideType": "key_takeaways", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "Part of a numbered list of recommendations for technology foresight.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "callout_box" ], "metadataConfidence": 1, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-33718c0bb3d5/6", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-33718c0bb3d5", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-33718c0bb3d5.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-5ca1-7489-b634-33718c0bb3d5#slide-6", "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Conducting technology foresight is not a one-off event that produces a report, but the precursor to taking strategic action.", "attrs": null, "subkind": null, "toolName": "Visual emphasis", "toolSlug": "visual-emphasis", "confidence": null, "componentId": "019dd951-a675-704b-b9b4-b1b0a79396cb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.7, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.1 }, "kind": "list", "text": "8. Understand sectoral nuances\n9. Ensure expert input is unbiased\n10. Make it an ongoing process", "attrs": null, "subkind": "bullet", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ce653667-7a25-45f8-9e09-b7b688351c4f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.36, "x": 0.59, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Conducting technology foresight is not a one-off event that produces a report, but the precursor to taking strategic action. Align the results of the exercise with key stakeholders after it has been completed to ensure implementation and forward progress. This includes using language accessible to decision makers and highlighting clear links between foresight topics and the wider policy agenda.\n\nTechnology foresight must be ongoing, with reports updated regularly, dependent on the time horizons and sector. Failing to repeat foresight exercises often enough or at the appropriate time means you will be slower to spot, or may even miss completely, breakthrough technologies, changes in your market, or unexpected events. There must be a regular, timetabled program of “technology scouting” to capture the most current list of promising technology areas within a given sector, followed by a phase of evaluation and validation to create a short list of those offering the greatest potential.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "573c3150-c3b1-44c5-9f02-a5ca1cf0d8c1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Experts will provide a large part of the content for any foresight exercise, particularly when it comes to qualitative data. It is therefore imperative that their input remains as unbiased as possible. Every effort must be made to avoid conflicts of interest that might skew any conclusions, requiring detailed background research and a full disclosure of any factors that could potentially introduce bias. Given that bias may still creep in, the methodology and analysis must be designed and carried out in such a way as to understand and mitigate its potential impact on the overall results.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "5ba67ba4-d887-4eae-813e-0918546a72d1", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.12 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Every sector has its own specific nuances when it comes to highlighting technological developments. Some industries may be less open to sharing knowledge, restricting the amount of information disseminated through publications, while others more readily publish their latest findings. In aerospace, for instance, there is a much greater emphasis on patents and intellectual capital protection than there is in the energy sector, where publishing papers is much the norm for disseminating information about new innovations. Policy makers should understand and account for these differences when making choices — a one-size-fits-all approach will certainly not be effective.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f5947f52-6995-4d69-9294-69fb04b7f086", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.62, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "CONDUCTING TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IS NOT A ONE-OFF EVENT", "attrs": null, "subkind": "action-title", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4d6f2262-82d2-415b-8459-1865c084eb42", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.08, "x": 0.09, "y": 0.01 }, "kind": "title", "text": "VIEWPOINT", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1236a46a-556a-448b-a61e-f47b8e6fee59", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.12, "x": 0.83, "y": 0.01 }, "kind": "title", "text": "ARTHUR D. LITTLE", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1cf83d43-8d6f-411a-8bd6-3062757e66f7", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Action Titles", "slug": "action-titles", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f62-c234a947fa8e", "evidence": "Heading 'Conducting technology foresight is not a one-off event' states the insight", "confidence": 80 }, { "name": "Core Message Extraction", "slug": "core-message-extraction", "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "matchId": "019dd95a-10d4-718b-9f62-c51630e00a97", "evidence": "Callout distills imperative 10 into one-line essential truth about ongoing process", "confidence": 60 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 6, "from": 3, "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e37-f124cdbe7732", "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit", "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit", "beatName": "Solution & Approach", "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-solution-approach", "evidence": "10 strategic imperatives walked through pp3-6", "position": 3, "confidence": 75, "parentBeatName": "Turn", "parentBeatSlug": "turn" }, { "to": 6, "from": 3, "beatId": "019dd95a-0682-776c-8e38-03e7401ed786", "arcName": "The Triple Take", "arcSlug": "triple-take", "beatName": "The Implications (So What)", "beatSlug": "triple-take-the-implications-so-what", "evidence": "10 imperatives = implications for getting foresight right", "position": 2, "confidence": 55, "parentBeatName": "Reflection", "parentBeatSlug": "reflection" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 6, "from": 3, "name": "Mece Breakdown", "slug": "40-mece-breakdown", "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis", "matchId": "019dd95a-07fe-70ce-8d40-1a7a4dc5e49d", "evidence": "Numbered 10 imperatives covering horizon, alignment, pragmatism, push/pull, indicators, comparisons, sector nuances, expert bias, and ongoing process — distinct categories aiming for completeness.", "position": 2, "objective": "Break technology foresight success into 10 distinct imperatives", "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage", "confidence": 80, "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }