{ "kind": "framework", "value": "occams-razor", "collectionKey": "slides:framework:occams-razor:all-document-kinds:all-producers:all-orientations", "filters": { "documentKinds": [], "sourceTypes": [], "orientations": [] }, "total": 3, "page": 1, "pageSize": 24, "pageCount": 1, "rows": [ { "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c", "docSlug": "778e2cbfbfaa", "documentTitle": "Amdocs Limited (DOX)", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "documentKindSlug": "activist-deck", "documentKindLabel": "Activist deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2019-01-23 00:00:00", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "pageNumber": 18, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "notes": "Uses a 'quote vs. rebuttal' structure to expose management narrative.", "imagePath": null, "matchCount": 1, "evidence": "Explicitly referenced in the title as the guiding principle for the argument.", "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c/18", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-9727cc72301c#slide-18", "loopMatches": [ { "to": 20, "from": 10, "name": "Aha Moment", "slug": "03-aha-moment", "bestFor": "Data-heavy sections, research findings, analytical arguments", "matchId": "2ad1cec8-447a-43ab-972e-024c922f9b65", "evidence": "The deck presents a series of accounting discrepancies and financial performance concerns that lead to an 'aha' moment for investors", "position": 0, "objective": "Is Amdocs' financial performance suspect?", "structure": "The Problem/Question -> What the Data Shows -> The Insight", "confidence": 0.8, "description": "Establish a tension, present data, then deliver the insight that changes everything" } ], "arcBeatMatches": [ { "to": 20, "from": 11, "beatId": "3d9bf36a-53c7-4ca3-b3f2-3bde0ff085b6", "arcName": "Overcoming the Monster", "arcSlug": "overcoming-monster", "beatName": "The Monster", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The deck presents a detailed critique of Amdocs' management practices and financial reporting", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }, { "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a", "docSlug": "aa7e6c3950ac", "documentTitle": "TAL Education Group (TAL)", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson C. Block", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2018-06-13 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 5, "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "notes": "Uses Occam's Razor as a rhetorical device to frame the company's likely denial as an improbable explanation for the observed data.", "imagePath": null, "matchCount": 1, "evidence": "Explicitly mentioned in the text as a tool for investors to evaluate the company's response.", "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a/5", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a#slide-5", "loopMatches": [ { "to": 71, "from": 2, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "173d833e-f506-46f1-a81b-f0c40e490cd2", "evidence": "The document implies that investors who fail to address these discrepancies may suffer significant financial losses", "position": 2, "objective": "What is the cost of not addressing TAL Education's financial discrepancies?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "arcBeatMatches": [ { "to": 71, "from": 3, "beatId": "9de0976e-28e1-420f-a107-b337349d49c9", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Expose Contradiction", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The document is primarily composed of slides that expose contradictions in TAL Education's financial reports", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null }, { "to": 28, "from": 5, "beatId": "11c13b7b-b36c-475f-9c6c-e855711d459e", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Preempt Rebuttal", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The document anticipates potential rebuttals to its claims", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }, { "docId": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a", "docSlug": "aa7e6c3950ac", "documentTitle": "TAL Education Group (TAL)", "authorId": "51_Muddy_Waters", "authorName": "Carson C. Block", "documentKindSlug": "research-note", "documentKindLabel": "Research note", "sourceTypeSlug": "short_seller", "sourceTypeLabel": "Short seller", "presentationDate": "2018-06-13 00:00:00", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "pageNumber": 20, "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "function": "expose_contradiction", "notes": "Uses Occam's razor to argue against the 'coincidence' of multiple improbable events in the transaction history.", "imagePath": null, "matchCount": 1, "evidence": "The Occam's razor explanation in our view is that all of this was orchestrated by TAL from the beginning.", "slideHref": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a/20", "deckHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b96-aa4b5c012f2a#slide-20", "loopMatches": [ { "to": 20, "from": 8, "name": "Iceberg", "slug": "10-iceberg", "bestFor": "Consulting, complex problem solving, organizational change", "matchId": "99149f44-5959-4c86-aa77-8f6fb44bba5b", "evidence": "The document reveals the iceberg principle, where TAL Education's transactions appear legitimate but have hidden implications", "position": 1, "objective": "What are the implications of TAL Education's transactions?", "structure": "The Symptom (Visible) -> The System (Hidden) -> The Root Cause", "confidence": 0.7, "description": "Reveal that the visible problem is merely a symptom of a deeper root cause" }, { "to": 71, "from": 2, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "173d833e-f506-46f1-a81b-f0c40e490cd2", "evidence": "The document implies that investors who fail to address these discrepancies may suffer significant financial losses", "position": 2, "objective": "What is the cost of not addressing TAL Education's financial discrepancies?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "arcBeatMatches": [ { "to": 71, "from": 3, "beatId": "9de0976e-28e1-420f-a107-b337349d49c9", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Expose Contradiction", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The document is primarily composed of slides that expose contradictions in TAL Education's financial reports", "position": 0, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null }, { "to": 28, "from": 5, "beatId": "11c13b7b-b36c-475f-9c6c-e855711d459e", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Preempt Rebuttal", "beatSlug": null, "evidence": "The document anticipates potential rebuttals to its claims", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": null, "parentBeatSlug": null } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true } ] }