{
  "kind": "tools",
  "canonId": "019de52d-1eb5-7639-abaa-44d7f65af562",
  "slug": "scenario-planning",
  "name": "Scenario planning",
  "category": null,
  "description": "A structured way to think about the future when prediction is impossible. Build three to four distinct, internally-coherent stories of how the world could unfold, and stress-test strategy against each. The output is a set of named worlds the team can argue with — not a probability distribution.",
  "structure": null,
  "bestFor": null,
  "layer": "block",
  "agent": null,
  "agents": [],
  "whenToUse": "Time horizon ≥12 months · ≥2 high-impact uncertainties that cannot be expressed as probability distributions · top two uncertainties roughly independent · team commits to revisit every 12–18 months. For shorter horizons use sensitivity analysis; for quantifiable risk use Monte Carlo; for one-dominant-uncertainty use cascade scenarios.",
  "whyItWorks": "Solves the two failure modes of forecasting at once: being precisely wrong (point estimates anyone can falsify) and uselessly hedged (ranges so wide they cannot guide action). Scenarios commit to a small set of plausible worlds and crystallise strategy into no-regret moves, sequenced bets, and lose-everywhere moves to drop. Names + early signals + wind-vane triggers turn the exercise into a usable contingency plan.",
  "narrativePurpose": "Force narrative discipline on multi-year decisions where single-point forecasts fail. Translate structural uncertainty into a small set of decision frames the boardroom can act on by name.",
  "signalComponentKinds": [
    "table",
    "callout",
    "quote"
  ],
  "signalKeywords": [
    "scenario",
    "uncertainty",
    "no-regret",
    "driving forces",
    "critical uncertainties",
    "2x2 matrix",
    "plausible future",
    "early signals",
    "contingency",
    "matrix"
  ],
  "signalDescriptions": {
    "quote": "Pull-quote anchoring a scenario in a vivid, world-shape sentence.",
    "table": "Tabular comparison of how each scenario differs across decision dimensions.",
    "matrix": "The 2x2 visual layout used to organize four scenarios along two axes of uncertainty.",
    "callout": "Highlighted strategic implication or named-world tagline — the boardroom takeaway.",
    "scenario": "A named, internally-coherent story of how the future could unfold — not a forecast, a world to plan against.",
    "no-regret": "Moves that pay off in every scenario — the lowest-risk strategic options identified by the analysis.",
    "2x2 matrix": "Plotting two critical uncertainties on perpendicular axes to generate four named worlds.",
    "contingency": "A pre-decided action triggered by an early signal — the link between scenario and decision.",
    "uncertainty": "The unknowns the team has stopped trying to predict. Wack's framing: don't forecast, structure the unknowns.",
    "early signals": "Leading indicators that tell the team which scenario is starting to unfold; the wind-vane.",
    "driving forces": "The structural factors (political, technological, behavioural) that shape how worlds diverge.",
    "plausible future": "A future-state hypothesis judged credible enough to plan against — distinct from probable or preferable.",
    "critical uncertainties": "The two-or-three forces with both highest impact and lowest predictability — the axes of the scenario set."
  },
  "antipattern": "Best/base/worst case (three points on one axis, not four scenarios) · probability-weighted average of scenarios (collapses to expected value) · Goldilocks-spaced scenarios that rank good-to-bad · scenarios named \"Scenario A/B/C\" instead of world-shape names · 50-row Excel labelled as a scenario (model, not story) · scenarios without measurable early signals.",
  "bodyDocId": "1b2fdf8f-9345-4d78-9875-7184e3da22ec",
  "bodyDocSlug": "framework-scenario-planning",
  "bodyDocTitle": "Scenario planning",
  "status": "active",
  "version": 1,
  "sequence": [],
  "arcUsages": [],
  "stats": {
    "matches": 128,
    "docs": 92,
    "slideRanges": 127,
    "avgConfidence": 0.24843751,
    "avgPages": null,
    "arcCount": 0,
    "requiredBeats": 0
  },
  "examples": [
    "keyword-coverage: no-regret, uncertainty",
    "Potential Outcomes list/bullet: Best-Case Scenario: Becomes market leader, $1B+ in yearly revenue.",
    "keyword-coverage: no-regret, scenario, uncertainty"
  ],
  "completeness": {
    "score": 100,
    "missing": []
  },
  "signalLift": [
    {
      "token": "plausible future",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "A future-state hypothesis judged credible enough to plan against — distinct from probable or preferable.",
      "baseRate": 0.000021989482744538756,
      "matchRate": 0.0234375,
      "lift": 1065.8504464285713,
      "expectedHits": 0.002814653791300961,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 7,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 3,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "no-regret",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "Moves that pay off in every scenario — the lowest-risk strategic options identified by the analysis.",
      "baseRate": 0.00006596844823361627,
      "matchRate": 0.0625,
      "lift": 947.422619047619,
      "expectedHits": 0.008443961373902882,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 21,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 8,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "driving forces",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "The structural factors (political, technological, behavioural) that shape how worlds diverge.",
      "baseRate": 0.00004712032016686876,
      "matchRate": 0.0390625,
      "lift": 828.9947916666666,
      "expectedHits": 0.0060314009813592015,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 15,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 5,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "contingency",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "A pre-decided action triggered by an early signal — the link between scenario and decision.",
      "baseRate": 0.00029842869439016884,
      "matchRate": 0.1015625,
      "lift": 340.3241776315789,
      "expectedHits": 0.03819887288194161,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 95,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 13,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "uncertainty",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "The unknowns the team has stopped trying to predict. Wack's framing: don't forecast, structure the unknowns.",
      "baseRate": 0.005758103124391362,
      "matchRate": 0.71875,
      "lift": 124.82409301691217,
      "expectedHits": 0.7370371999220944,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 1833,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 92,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "scenario",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "A named, internally-coherent story of how the future could unfold — not a forecast, a world to plan against.",
      "baseRate": 0.007454434650398638,
      "matchRate": 0.890625,
      "lift": 119.47586125158028,
      "expectedHits": 0.9541676352510257,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 2373,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 114,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "2x2 matrix",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "Plotting two critical uncertainties on perpendicular axes to generate four named worlds.",
      "baseRate": 0.001941357190874993,
      "matchRate": 0.09375,
      "lift": 48.290958737864074,
      "expectedHits": 0.2484937204319991,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 618,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 12,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "matrix",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "The 2x2 visual layout used to organize four scenarios along two axes of uncertainty.",
      "baseRate": 0.011035578983080664,
      "matchRate": 0.1171875,
      "lift": 10.619062233134073,
      "expectedHits": 1.412554109834325,
      "status": "strong",
      "baseHits": 3513,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 15,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "callout",
      "kind": "component_kind",
      "description": "Highlighted strategic implication or named-world tagline — the boardroom takeaway.",
      "baseRate": 0.3038977928842034,
      "matchRate": 0.6484375,
      "lift": 2.1337354702246203,
      "expectedHits": 38.89891748917803,
      "status": "mild",
      "baseHits": 96741,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 83,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "quote",
      "kind": "component_kind",
      "description": "Pull-quote anchoring a scenario in a vivid, world-shape sentence.",
      "baseRate": 0.058284694691738866,
      "matchRate": 0.078125,
      "lift": 1.3404033496820094,
      "expectedHits": 7.460440920542575,
      "status": "mild",
      "baseHits": 18554,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 10,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "table",
      "kind": "component_kind",
      "description": "Tabular comparison of how each scenario differs across decision dimensions.",
      "baseRate": 0.19026557012446046,
      "matchRate": 0.1484375,
      "lift": 0.780159541754722,
      "expectedHits": 24.35399297593094,
      "status": "weak",
      "baseHits": 60568,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 19,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "other",
      "kind": "component_kind",
      "description": null,
      "baseRate": 0.024662775575339108,
      "matchRate": 0,
      "lift": 0,
      "expectedHits": 3.1568352736434058,
      "status": "anti",
      "baseHits": 7851,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 0,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "critical uncertainties",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "The two-or-three forces with both highest impact and lowest predictability — the axes of the scenario set.",
      "baseRate": 0.000006282709355582501,
      "matchRate": 0,
      "lift": 0,
      "expectedHits": 0.0008041867975145602,
      "status": "noise",
      "baseHits": 2,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 0,
      "matchTotal": 128
    },
    {
      "token": "early signals",
      "kind": "keyword",
      "description": "Leading indicators that tell the team which scenario is starting to unfold; the wind-vane.",
      "baseRate": 0.000018848128066747504,
      "matchRate": 0,
      "lift": 0,
      "expectedHits": 0.0024125603925436805,
      "status": "noise",
      "baseHits": 6,
      "baseTotal": 318334,
      "matchHits": 0,
      "matchTotal": 128
    }
  ]
}