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Once entrepreneurs realize that their assumptions about investors' returns based on the company valuation at exit may be off by a factor of 3x to 5x, negotiations become easier. If neither side understands divergence, then negotiations can easily deteriorate and become contentious.\nIn general, educate before you negotiate. 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All rights reserved.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Other", "slug": "other", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa90-743c-8bf6-20d1fbe82b6d", "version": 1, "description": "Fallback when no canonical kind applies." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "source-note", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:51.499+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f6fd8f12-16ec-4be7-8a2d-4b3480ff0c8e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.024, "w": 0.786, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.285 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In summary, then, based on available data, evaluations of small, high-growth opportunities ought to focus more on the quality of the management and less on the amount of the valuations.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:51.499+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00ab8736-09d7-4303-ac36-e25719adcf89", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.047, "w": 0.786, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.233 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For follow-on and later stage investing, the range of valuations is much wider and the number and complexity of valuation equations much greater, especially when considering the precipitous fall pictured from the end of the bubble in 2001.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:51.499+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "146ae6e6-eb56-4a96-87c6-25dea6368817", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.786, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.177 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "businesses. 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Early Stage: The company has a product or service in testing or pilot production.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:51.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f892afd3-8237-4854-8a80-499c4b7085f2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.438 }, "kind": "list", "text": "See the extended discussion of pre-money valuation in \"Valuation of Pre-revenue Companies: The Venture Capital Method\" by William H. (Bill) Payne starting on page 18. \"Is Valuation a Key Issue in Funding Startups?,\" by George Lipper, July 2007.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Numbered list", "slug": "numbered", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fcc0-7718-a284-a4250c805df2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "numbered", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:51.992+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "da62a970-beaf-40a6-bdd2-99fbfdb18989", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.538 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "For follow-on and later stage investing, the range of valuations is much wider and the number and complexity of valuation equations much greater. 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We can then calculate the terminal value in the nth year at $50 million x 15 percent x 12 = $90 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:54.527+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4d3880d2-76a3-4e6f-b55a-ac48e2e53500", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.65 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Very early-stage investing is very high-risk investing. In a typical portfolio of ten companies, seed/start-up investors can expect three to five of those companies to fail completely: no return of capital; a total write-off. Another three or four will provide some return of capital or a small return on investment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:54.527+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5e7a8f2d-389a-4550-baad-1939878ee87d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.2 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The valuation of an investor-funded company at exit in the nth year can be estimated by a variety of techniques. One common method is to (a) estimate revenues in the exit year; (b) use industry standards for earnings as a percentage of revenues; and (c) find price/earnings ratios for companies in the business vertical.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:54.527+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a09a15bc-9c02-445a-b23a-bbf17a25dead", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Another method for estimating terminal value is to use a multiple of annual revenues. Companies similar to the target company in the previous example might be selling for twice revenues in the nth year. The terminal value by this method, would be 2 x $50 million = $100 million.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:54.527+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d5147478-dcf9-4f5d-8023-b52bbd6870d9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.51 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "My target ROI for investing in the first professional round of funding in a seed/start-up company is 30x. 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So, if the terminal value of a company seeking seed/start-up capital is estimated to be $60 million and we assume the stage of the company is appropriate for investors to expect 30x ROI in year of harvest, then the post-money valuation of this company can be estimated at $2 million. If the required investment is $0.5 million, then the pre-money valuation would be $1.5 million. These calculations are shown in the following formulas:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "description", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:53.881+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cac1824f-a86c-454f-b265-b26b8f451f26", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Summary: For the past decade or so, the average pre-money valuations of seed venture capital deals have been between $1.5 million and $2 million. 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In the first round angels (including me) invested $2 million and received 30.3 percent of the equity, with shares at $0.74.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "description", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:53.438+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b8ff6de2-be2d-41d7-8bd1-76447fa7cd3f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.11 }, "kind": "subtitle", "text": "Luis Villalobos", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Subtitle", "slug": "subtitle", "status": "active", "canonId": "82d821ee-2793-42e7-8f16-c6131385a3ce", "version": 1, "description": "Header-zone supporting text near the title (= ex body.description with bbox)." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:53.438+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4396b065-8b68-48c7-9a35-b4b882c6b3b0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.26, "y": 0.618 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Gadzoox valuation data across five funding rounds from Jan-96 to Jul-99.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:53.438+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "016b543f-c3fc-42fb-830b-50fa409bb9ed", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.08 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Valuation Divergence", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 19:00:53.438+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "946a20c4-26af-4fc6-b9ee-4d4a2d04c550", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 23, "arc": { "name": "The Sequoia Pitch", "slug": "sequoia-pitch", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Investor pitches, Series A/B, board presentations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e69-75a7-a0a4-895ac1bc0444", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem -> Solution -> Why Now -> Market Size -> Competition -> Product -> Business Model -> Team -> Financials -> The Ask", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 21, "name": "Team", "beatId": "6794f076-4eda-48fc-9016-5b3e0a3f0cb6", "matchId": "94ad3bce-e9f4-4a02-982a-989a231ee834", "beatType": { "name": "Team", "slug": "sequoia-pitch-team", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-23c9-746f-aaf9-2f5d83892cf3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The document mentions the importance of team in valuation", "position": 4, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Evidence", "slug": "evidence", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-03f9-772a-b84a-4f07b415b77a", "version": 1, "description": "A dedicated proof beat exists in only ~4 arcs (Gambit, Sequoia, AIDA, Monroes). 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Although Gadzoox is just a single example, it's a powerful one. After all, how many early-stage investments are in a company for which the valuation goes from less than $7 million to nearly $2 billion in three-and-a-half years? The data I am compiling for my book strongly suggest that divergence for successful exits is usually between 3x and 5x.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:01:28.39+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "58fc553e-4ae2-47b8-8d46-b49142697a5c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.786, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.458 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Summary. An understanding of how divergence works can make negotiations between entrepreneurs and investors more productive and less contentious because expectations on both sides will be more realistic. In nearly all cases, between an early-stage investment and an exit divergence the valuation of investor shares will likely increase by 3x to 5x less than the company valuation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:01:28.39+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b28401b6-7c80-49da-a17f-6ee6f13a0cc2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.078, "w": 0.786, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.243 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Dilution causes divergence. Another way to look at divergence in Gadzoox is that the angels' ownership was diluted to 10.8 percent from 30.3 percent (30.3 / 10.8 = 2.8). Although investors and entrepreneurs are generally familiar with the concept of \"dilution,\" few consider how it affects the valuations of company and investor shares. I developed the concept of divergence to emphasize how these valuations change from investment to exit.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:01:28.39+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d6a602d6-70e5-4fec-b67c-18a45a1c183c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.131, "w": 0.786, "x": 0.107, "y": 0.324 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The \"no dilution\" illusion. Entrepreneurs often believe that subsequent financing won't be needed to reach their five-year plan numbers, so dilution won't occur. 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